News & analysis

Graham Brady shows May the door

Theresa May is set to announce her formal resignation today according to nearly all political commentators. The PM will retain her position until June 10th in order to host the visit from US President Donald Trump on June 3rd.

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What next for May and Sterling?

Following the latest failure of her withdrawal agreement, Theresa May’s premiership is over in any meaningful sense.  The only question is when she will finally announce her resignation, and what tone the race to replace her takes?

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May and sterling reluctant to move as the 1922 circles

In the afternoon of yesterday’s session, sterling stood still as political headlines came thick and fast with speculation rife that May would announce her retirement that evening amid significant pressure from senior party officials.

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To Brexit or not to Brexit, that is the question

Yesterday, Theresa May pinned her hopes on increasing votes in favour of the Withdrawal Bill from Labour, as opposed to votes from within her own Tory party, ahead of the vote in 2-weeks’ time.

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China accuses US of making wrong call on Huawei

This morning it became clear President Trump has signed a waiver to postpone the sanctions against Chinese technology company Huawei for three months. The market reaction of this potential first step towards atonement is muted, however, as the measures are still to be implemented later.

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Sterling falls off the Boris Cliff once again

Friday’s collapse of talks between Labour and May confirmed what markets had been progressively pricing in last week: that May’s final attempt at passing her withdrawal agreement in Parliament was likely to end in failure and resignation. The two key things to watch this week will be how the chances of May’s deal evolve, and the tone of the simmering battle to replace her.

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May likely to be gone in June

Unless May manages to achieve some type of breakthrough in the near future, a likely Conservative Party revolt would see her ousted and replaced, possibly by a Eurosceptic such as Boris Johnson – a prospect that would likely see further sterling weakness due to the increased chances of a no-deal Brexit in October.

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Euro and sterling face political headwinds

There seems to be no winner in current British politics, but there definitely is one loser – the pound. GBPUSD falls for the sixth consecutive trading day and now sits at levels not seen since mid-February.

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Chinese dragon breathes out sparks, but doesn’t spit fire yet

This can be the synopsis of China’s largest sell-off of US treasury paper in two years in March, as it remains tiny compared to China’s total UST holdings, while even Canada sold more USTs that month.

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Sterling pushes towards a 3-month low as May’s tenure looks set to end

News from Westminster that the Withdrawal Agreement will be put to a vote in the Commons at the beginning of June has brought the Brexit headache back for those investing in British assets. The game of picking the likeliest Brexit outcome has re-emerged, however, this time around market sentiment has deteriorated substantially. With the withdrawal […]

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Ranko Berich

Ranko Berich

Ranko Berich is Head of Market Analysis at Monex Europe & Monex Canada. He is a respected macroeconomic commentator, combining incisive market insight with a deep understanding of global economic and political events.

Ranko leads our team of analysts, providing commentary and insight on the markets as news breaks.

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