What next for May and Sterling?
Following the latest failure of her withdrawal agreement, Theresa May’s premiership is over in any meaningful sense. The only question is when she will finally announce her resignation, and what tone the race to replace her takes?
Sterling falls off the Boris Cliff once again
Friday’s collapse of talks between Labour and May confirmed what markets had been progressively pricing in last week: that May’s final attempt at passing her withdrawal agreement in Parliament was likely to end in failure and resignation. The two key things to watch this week will be how the chances of May’s deal evolve, and the tone of the simmering battle to replace her.
Sterling pushes towards a 3-month low as May’s tenure looks set to end
News from Westminster that the Withdrawal Agreement will be put to a vote in the Commons at the beginning of June has brought the Brexit headache back for those investing in British assets. The game of picking the likeliest Brexit outcome has re-emerged, however, this time around market sentiment has deteriorated substantially. With the withdrawal […]
EURUSD nears $1.10 level
The recent response by the single currency is the complete opposite to that seen last year in April and May when a surge in global trade uncertainty had the euro quickly sink below the $1.20 level. This time it’s different for the euro, which suggests the currency may be close to a bottom on EURUSD.
Bitcoin-Altcoin Spread Suggests different dynamic to previous Crypto Booms
Bitcoin is on a tear this week, having strengthened by almost 40% against the US dollar since Friday.
Banxico on hold as risks worsen
The trade impasse threatens Mexican growth prospects via lower external demand from the US, which accounts for 80% of Mexican exports.
Ramaphosa euphoria sweeps SA markets
With 85% of the vote counted thus far, President Ramaphosa is likely to retain office for his first full 5-year stretch.
US-China: The calm before the storm
With such an important global macro event taking place in Washington today, FX markets float in limbo as the possibility of the trade war resurfacing remains ever-present.
South African election preview
South African elections are set to take place on Wednesday 8th May, with the results expected within 48 hours of polls closing. That being said, most polling stations report results within 24 hours so the market reaction will likely occur on Friday.
Resistance to crude upside looks firm despite supply shocks
Green sprouts appearing through dark soil has become the narrative in FX markets this quarter as global headwinds begin to ease. However, after the strong correction in Q1, the same cannot be said for oil markets as the rally begins to peter out.
Ranko BerichRanko Berich is Head of Market Analysis at Monex Europe & Monex Canada. He is a respected macroeconomic commentator, combining incisive market insight with a deep understanding of global economic and political events.
Ranko leads our team of analysts, providing commentary and insight on the markets as news breaks.