News & Analysis

Our focus is on helping our clients make better informed trading decisions and stay on top of fast moving, volatile markets.

A break in the ranges

A break in the ranges

With a swathe of central bank speakers on the roster for in the coming week, conditions should remain volatile for financial markets. read more

The loonie looks set to soften further as traders digest a dovish BoC

The loonie looks set to soften further as traders digest a dovish BoC

With traders now having time to assess the BoC’s dovishness, we see the balance of risks tilted towards further loonie weakness heading into the weekend. read more

The ECB not recommitting, but sets up a cut in June

The ECB not recommitting, but sets up a cut in June

The ECB has kept rates unchanged once again, maintaining the deposit rate at 4.00% in line with widespread consensus and our own pre-announcement call. read more

USDCAD breaks to fresh four-and-a-half month high

USDCAD breaks to fresh four-and-a-half month high

As we predicted, the double whammy of US CPI and a BoC decision saw USDCAD climb sharply on Wednesday. read more

Bank of Canada on track for June cut

Bank of Canada on track for June cut

The Bank of Canada left its policy rate unchanged at 5% today, which came as no surprise to markets. read more

Bump in US disinflation path looks more like a mountain than a molehill

Bump in US disinflation path looks more like a mountain than a molehill

Both headline and core measures of US CPI landed 0.1pp above expectations on a monthly basis in March, printing at 0.4% MoM respectively on a rounded basis. read more

BoC should light bullish trigger in USDCAD

BoC should light bullish trigger in USDCAD

The combination of both a US CPI report and a BoC meeting means that USDCAD traders are set to receive a double whammy of market moving events today. read more

Banxico to remain cautious even as inflation misses expectations

Banxico to remain cautious even as inflation misses expectations

Headline and core inflation in Mexico came in slightly below consensus expectations for a notable pick-up in inflation in March. read more

Steady ahead of a blockbuster Wednesday

Steady ahead of a blockbuster Wednesday

The one factor that remains favouring short term loonie strength is the BoC’s perceived hawkishness, though we expect this to fade at tomorrow’s meeting. read more

USDCAD to break higher as markets realise the BoC isn’t the Fed

USDCAD to break higher as markets realise the BoC isn’t the Fed

Combined with last week's soft data, this week's data should hammer home the message for markets that Canada is not the US. read more

Moving in opposite directions

Moving in opposite directions

Next week, we will get to see if the BoC’s Governing Council now agrees with our view, tilting dovish and steer towards commencing rate cuts in June. read more

Strong payrolls print, but June still the base case

Strong payrolls print, but June still the base case

The March US nonfarm payrolls print beat all expectations, showing the economy added 303k jobs. read more

Canada’s labour market supports continuous easing from the BoC

Canada’s labour market supports continuous easing from the BoC

The Canadian economy failed to add jobs in March, with employment essentially flatlining on the month. read more

CAD vulnerable to downside correction on weak jobs data

CAD vulnerable to downside correction on weak jobs data

Although the US jobs report will capture headlines later today, traders should not overlook its Canadian counterpart, set to be released simultaneously. read more

Loonie remains rangebound heading into Friday’s jobs

Loonie remains rangebound heading into Friday’s jobs

With a key jobs release coming up on Friday, traders' hesitancy to take CAD higher is understandable to our Monex analysts. read more

Softer ISM Services should be treated with caution

Softer ISM Services should be treated with caution

The ISM services PMI dropped to 51.4 in March, down 1.2 percentage points from 52.6 the month prior and disappointing market consensus. read more

Monex’s April 2024 FX Forecasts

Monex’s April 2024 FX Forecasts

Our market analysts believe expectations of monetary easing across the G10 are likely to diverge further in April. Here's Monex's latest FX forecasts for April. read more

Hard to turn constructive on CAD, even as oil rallies

Hard to turn constructive on CAD, even as oil rallies

The loonie has struggled to find its typical oil beta, in contrast to the similarly oil sensitive NOK, which rallied by more than 1% against the dollar. read more

BoC surveys support dovish stance on Canadian rates

BoC surveys support dovish stance on Canadian rates

The BoC’s Business outlook survey offered a grim readthrough on prospects for the Canadian economy, adding to the data evidencing the damage of high rates. read more

Breaking for Easter but not higher for the dollar

Breaking for Easter but not higher for the dollar

Next week should start off quieter as the Easter holidays in many parts of the world bring reduced liquidity and limited price action across FX markets. read more

Canada’s economy rises from its slump, but it’s not all good news

Canada’s economy rises from its slump, but it’s not all good news

The Canadian economy grew 0.6% MoM in January, beating expectations and Statistics Canada’s flash estimate by 0.2 percentage points. read more

A miss in GDP could send USDCAD north of 1.36

A miss in GDP could send USDCAD north of 1.36

Canadian GDP figures published at 12:30 GMT are expected to show a pickup in activity in January, with the economy growing by a respectable 0.4% MoM. read more

Loonie left in the hands of Waller ahead of GDP tomorrow

Loonie left in the hands of Waller ahead of GDP tomorrow

The focus for loonie traders now turns towards a speech by Fed Governor Waller later today, before tomorrow's GDP release. read more

Deputy Rogers poses asymmetric risks for BoC easing bets

Deputy Rogers poses asymmetric risks for BoC easing bets

BoC Senior Deputy Governor Rodgers is set to speak at today on the urgent need to improve Canadian productivity. read more

USDCAD flirts with a breakout to the upside

USDCAD flirts with a breakout to the upside

Even in spite of the BoC’s hawkishness, USDCAD continues to flirt with year-to-date highs. read more

Taking time to digest

Taking time to digest

After a week full of central bank policy decisions, in the coming week, markets will have further opportunity to digest these developments. read more

CAD back to pre-Fed lows ahead of retail sales

CAD back to pre-Fed lows ahead of retail sales

For loonier traders, today Canadian retail sales data is released, expected to show that consumer activity softened in January. read more

Bank of England lays the foundations to cut

Bank of England lays the foundations to cut

The Bank of England has left Bank Rate unchanged at 5.25% once again, in line with consensus expectations and our forecast. read more

March PMIs point towards a two speed Europe

March PMIs point towards a two speed Europe

March flash PMIs continue to highlight the contrasting fortunes of European economies. read more

The SNB commences the G10 easing cycle

The SNB commences the G10 easing cycle

The Swiss National Bank today cut its policy rate by 25bps to 1.5%, making it the first G10 central bank to cut rates this cycle. read more

Drop in USDCAD provides favourable entry point for long positions

Drop in USDCAD provides favourable entry point for long positions

We think yesterday’s slide in the pair offers an attractive entry point for USDCAD longs, with expectations that the pair should move higher through Q2. read more

Fed reiterates confidence to cut this year, but risk of a higher terminal rate grows

Fed reiterates confidence to cut this year, but risk of a higher terminal rate grows

FOMC members continue to predict 3 rate cuts this year, but have revised up the 2025/2026 median by 25bps and lifted the longer-term projection moderately. read more

BoC minutes could extend CAD losses pre-Fed

BoC minutes could extend CAD losses pre-Fed

For USDCAD risks look skewed asymmetrically to the upside today, with the potential for dovish BoC minutes and a hawkish Fed meeting. read more

UK inflation cools but not by enough to shift the BoE

UK inflation cools but not by enough to shift the BoE

Headline UK inflation dropped marginally more than expected in February, with prices rising by 3.4% on a YoY basis. read more

BoC should cut in April, whether they will is another question

BoC should cut in April, whether they will is another question

Across nearly all measures, inflation pressures in Canada cooled considerably in February, with headline inflation undershooting consensus expectations. read more

SNB preview: Narrowly avoiding being the first to cut

SNB preview: Narrowly avoiding being the first to cut

Having effectively brought inflation back to within its target range, the SNB scans as the most likely candidate to kickstart the DM easing cycle. read more

Inflation poses downside risk to CAD

Inflation poses downside risk to CAD

As noted in yesterday’s morning report, the February inflation report due this afternoon is likely to be key for both the BoC and the loonie. read more

Bank of Japan “dovishly” exits negative rates and YCC

Bank of Japan “dovishly” exits negative rates and YCC

The Bank of Japan hiked interest rates for the first time in 17 years today, effectively exiting negative interest rates that had been in place since 2016. read more

Norges Bank Preview: NOK rocking the ship

Norges Bank Preview: NOK rocking the ship

Whilst we see no risk of the Norges Bank adjusting rates this week, the extent to which the central bank updates its guidance will be important to markets. read more

Chances of an April cut to be determined this week

Chances of an April cut to be determined this week

Though the main North American event this week is likely to be Wednesday’s Fed meeting, there is still plenty going on north of the border in Canada. read more

A jam packed data calendar awaits

A jam packed data calendar awaits

FX markets drop down a gear as the lighter data calendar allowed traders to take stock, but this week an abundance of central bank meetings are in focus. read more

CAD drops alongside equities

CAD drops alongside equities

Whilst not the worst performer yesterday, a half percent drop for USDCAD leaves the pair trading closer to levels that better reflect relative fundamentals. read more

UK economy rebounds in January

UK economy rebounds in January

January’s monthly GDP print showed the UK economy expanded by 0.2%, fuelling hopes that a technical recession for the UK will remain a 2023 story. read more

US inflation keeps Fed easing bets before June at bay

US inflation keeps Fed easing bets before June at bay

US Headline inflation only just met expectations of a 0.4% MoM increase in February, with the unrounded figure printing at 0.442%. read more

Marginal labour market cooling keeps the BoE on track for an August cut

Marginal labour market cooling keeps the BoE on track for an August cut

January’s UK labour market data, released this morning, keeps the Bank of England on track for an August start to policy easing. read more

Is the tide turning for the dollar?

Is the tide turning for the dollar?

Next week will see data releases from the US, Brazil, the UK, China and Poland, all of which pose notable questions for their respective currencies. read more

Powell’s confidence is not misplaced

Powell’s confidence is not misplaced

Today’s jobs report is the kind that should see confidence building at the Fed, as the headline NFP number indicated 275k jobs added in February. read more

Strong job growth doesn’t justify the BoC delaying until June

Strong job growth doesn’t justify the BoC delaying until June

For the second month this year, the Canadian economy added an above-trend level of jobs, with net employment increased by 40.7k in February. read more

Lagarde all but shuts the door on an April cut

Lagarde all but shuts the door on an April cut

The ECB kept all policy rates unchanged once again in today’s decision, meeting both consensus expectations and our own pre-announcement call. read more

BoC says it’s “too early” to ease

BoC says it’s “too early” to ease

The Bank of Canada left its policy rate at 5% for a fifth straight meeting today, in line with the broad consensus. read more

Monex’s March 2024 FX Forecasts

Monex’s March 2024 FX Forecasts

With more central bank meetings set for this month, we think policymakers will have to recognise the growing divergence in economic fundamentals. read more

Time to pick up the pace

Time to pick up the pace

Activity should ramp up again for FX traders, with the focus first on Switzerland followed by key central banks meetings for both the BoC and ECB. read more

Canada’s economy can’t fulfil its potential despite beating expectations

Canada’s economy can’t fulfil its potential despite beating expectations

The Canadian economy essentially flatlined in December following a 0.23% MoM increase in November, as measured on an industry basis. read more

Inflation remains in focus

Inflation remains in focus

Next week, inflation dynamics will be in focus, with CPI data out of Japan, two central bank decisions, a Canadian GDP print and eurozone inflation data. read more

Divergent fortunes between the UK and eurozone are on show once again

Divergent fortunes between the UK and eurozone are on show once again

Green shoots of recovery should not distract from the reality that eurozone activity remains in contraction, highlighted today by eurozone PMI figures. read more

April is now live again for a BoC cut

April is now live again for a BoC cut

Thankfully for the BoC, January’s inflation data presented a clearer picture of disinflation, with all indices essentially reflecting weaker growth rates. read more

PBoC provides more support to the housing market

PBoC provides more support to the housing market

The People’s Bank of China surprised market expectations, cutting the 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) instead of the 1-year LPR. read more

Realised vol to stay high next week

Realised vol to stay high next week

The reopening of Chinese markets and their response to last week’s move in US rates will likely keep volatility high at the start of the coming week. read more

UK retail sales reverse the Christmas slump

UK retail sales reverse the Christmas slump

January’s retail sales data should put to bed any doubts around the UK’s economic prospects heading into 2024. read more

UK Q4 GDP figures confirm a 2023 technical recession

UK Q4 GDP figures confirm a 2023 technical recession

UK GDP data released this morning confirmed that the UK just barely fell into a technical recession at the end of 2023. read more

UK inflation surprisingly fails to accelerate

UK inflation surprisingly fails to accelerate

January’s UK inflation numbers notably undershot expectations in this morning's release, countering yesterday’s hotter labour market figures. read more

US CPI provides the Fed with another reason to hold

US CPI provides the Fed with another reason to hold

If the prospect of an interest rate cut from the Fed in March wasn’t yet dead, January’s inflation data has just provided the final bullet. read more

SNB to weaken the franc ahead of March rate cut

SNB to weaken the franc ahead of March rate cut

Today's Swiss inflation data confirms our view that the SNB will loosen monetary policy, primarily through the exchange rate before cutting its policy rate. read more

UK labour market continues to outperform expectations

UK labour market continues to outperform expectations

Today's UK labour market data delivered yet another head scratching outturn, reinforcing our call for no policy rate easing in the first half of this year. read more

UK and US data in focus as China celebrates Lunar New Year

UK and US data in focus as China celebrates Lunar New Year

In the coming week, the markets focus will return to G10 currencies, with a number of key data releases set to be delivered. read more

Even Canada’s jobs data isn’t safe

Even Canada’s jobs data isn’t safe

Canada’s macroeconomic data has been incredibly noisy in recent months, making it nigh on impossible to accurately predict the state of the economy. read more

January inflation and a more cautious Banxico point to the March meeting… as the soonest

January inflation and a more cautious Banxico point to the March meeting… as the soonest

Headline and core inflation in January continued to show the pace of disinflation in Mexico slowing at the beginning of the year. read more

A blow to easing bets

A blow to easing bets

The focus for many FX traders will switch to emerging markets. However, developed markets still have their share of entertainment coming up. read more

Monster US jobs print deals a blow to Fed easing bets

Monster US jobs print deals a blow to Fed easing bets

The US economy added a monstrous 353k jobs in January, beating consensus expectations of just 185k by a considerable margin. read more

Monex’s February 2024 FX Forecasts

Monex’s February 2024 FX Forecasts

With markets having now unwound December’s moves, our FX analysts believe the scope for further US dollar appreciation looks more limited for February. read more

Bank of England bides time before rate cuts

Bank of England bides time before rate cuts

The Bank of England held rates at their first policy meeting of the year, a move widely expected by markets and in line with our pre-announcement call. read more

BCB stays the course despite new faces

BCB stays the course despite new faces

Yesterday, the BCB finally decided unanimously to cut the Selic rate by 50 basis points for the fifth consecutive time, to 11.25%. read more

Eurozone disinflation hits a bump in the road

Eurozone disinflation hits a bump in the road

January’s preliminary eurozone inflation overshot expectations by 0.1pp, with headline CPI figures showing price growth of 2.8% on an annual basis. read more

Fed takes next cautious step in the path to cuts

Fed takes next cautious step in the path to cuts

The Federal Reserve today held rates in the target range of 5.25-5.5% for the fourth consecutive meeting in a decision that was unanimously expected. read more

Canadian economy looks set to rise from the ashes in Q4, albeit briefly

Canadian economy looks set to rise from the ashes in Q4, albeit briefly

Preliminary GDP data for Q4 shows the Canadian economy tracking at an annualised rate of 1.2% QoQ. read more

Focus turns back to the Fed

Focus turns back to the Fed

Next week should see monetary policy continue as a driver for FX markets, with the Fed is set to announce its first policy decision of the year. read more

Lagarde cracks open the door to earlier rate cuts

Lagarde cracks open the door to earlier rate cuts

In a move that surprised almost no-one, the ECB has held rates once again today, maintaining the deposit rate at 4.00% in line with market consensus. read more

The BoC pivot begins

The BoC pivot begins

The Bank of Canada maintained its policy rate at 5.00% in the first policy decision of the new year, in line with market consensus. read more

European PMIs remain pointed in opposite directions

European PMIs remain pointed in opposite directions

A marginal uptick in eurozone PMIs does little to dispel the notion that the bloc is well and truly stuck in contraction. read more

Avoiding talk of cuts

Avoiding talk of cuts

Looking ahead to next week, the overwhelming theme in markets will be the reluctance of DM central banks to begin discussing the path towards policy easing. read more

Sticky inflation set to keep the BoE on hold in early 2024

Sticky inflation set to keep the BoE on hold in early 2024

UK inflation reaccelerated in December, with headline price growth rising to 4.0% YoY, up from 3.9% the month prior, surprising the consensus. read more

A rise in core inflation pressures likely means a hawkish BoC next week

A rise in core inflation pressures likely means a hawkish BoC next week

Canadian inflation accelerated in December, rising to 3.4% YoY in line with expectations, but still a 0.3pp increase on November’s 3.1% reading. read more

The labour market continue to cool, but not fast enough to suggest imminent cuts from the BoE

The labour market continue to cool, but not fast enough to suggest imminent cuts from the BoE

UK wage data showed that pay pressures continue to cool, though not fast enough to see the Bank of England cutting rates until the second half of 2024. read more

UK economy bounces back from October’s slumber

UK economy bounces back from October’s slumber

The UK economy grew by 0.3% in November, beating the 0.2% expansion anticipated by markets to completely reverse October’s decline. read more

US CPI adds pressure to the market’s Fed view

US CPI adds pressure to the market’s Fed view

Both US headline and core inflation printed at 0.3% MoM in December, with the former landing 0.1pp above expectations and the latter in line with consensus. read more

Macro Outlook 2024: Not so fast – dollar to decline but rout unlikely

Macro Outlook 2024: Not so fast – dollar to decline but rout unlikely

This year is set to see policy easing play out across most major economies, though our FX analysts foresee a bumpier ride than many are predicting for 2024. read more

Fed to remain cautious on conflicting labour market signals

Fed to remain cautious on conflicting labour market signals

December’s nonfarm payrolls delivered a beat to expectations, coming in hotter-than-expected and posing a significant challenge to markets. read more

The curious case of Canada’s jobs market

The curious case of Canada’s jobs market

The Canadian economy failed to add any jobs in December, with employment levels in full-time positions actually falling by 23.5k on the month. read more

Fed meeting minutes show no signs of rate cut discussion, as intimated by Powell

Fed meeting minutes show no signs of rate cut discussion, as intimated by Powell

Since Powell’s press conference, members of the FOMC have been actively trying to push back on the market's dovish view. read more

European PMIs point to divergent economic fortunes heading into the new year

European PMIs point to divergent economic fortunes heading into the new year

November’s PMI figures proved to be a false dawn for the eurozone, pointing to a less than merry Christmas for some European economies. read more

ECB clings onto hawkish narrative, but moves on PEPP

ECB clings onto hawkish narrative, but moves on PEPP

The ECB unanimously held the deposit rate at 4%, despite simultaneously downgrading its 2024 growth, inflation, and core inflation forecasts. read more

The Old Lady’s not for turning

The Old Lady’s not for turning

As expected, and unlike the Fed last night, the BoE resisted the urge to pivot to a more dovish monetary policy stance. read more

SNB turns neutral on the franc

SNB turns neutral on the franc

The Swiss National Bank held rates on Sight Deposits at 1.75% for the second consecutive meeting, in line with broad market consensus. read more

Rate cuts draw closer for the Fed as the economy seen cooling

Rate cuts draw closer for the Fed as the economy seen cooling

The Federal Reserve today tweaked its policy statement and Summary of Economic Projections in a progressively dovish direction. read more

UK growth cools, but is set to recover

UK growth cools, but is set to recover

UK growth figures surprised to the downside, showing the economy shrank by 0.3% in October, below consensus estimates that looked for a 0.1% contraction. read more

The pace of US disinflation starts to slow

The pace of US disinflation starts to slow

Disinflationary progress in the US effectively stalled in November, giving the Fed further evidence to turn to tomorrow to relay a more cautious message. read more

UK wage growth cools, but not enough to shift the BoE

UK wage growth cools, but not enough to shift the BoE

UK labour market data delivered a downside surprise, confirming no further rate hikes are on the horizon from the Bank of England. read more

November payrolls give Fed reason to be cautious

November payrolls give Fed reason to be cautious

The US economy added 199k jobs in November, up from 150k in October and marginally above consensus expectations of 183k. read more

BoC holds rates at 5%, delaying discussions of easing until 2024

BoC holds rates at 5%, delaying discussions of easing until 2024

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 5% today for the third successive meeting since it resumed its hiking cycle back earlier this year. read more

Canadian labour market loosens despite strong job growth

Canadian labour market loosens despite strong job growth

November’s jobs report marks another mixed data release out of Canada. Headline employment growth once again proved strong. read more

Monex’s December 2023 FX Forecasts

Monex’s December 2023 FX Forecasts

Whilst our FX analysts maintain a bearish view on the US dollar from mid-2024 onwards, they continue to envisage a stronger dollar heading into 24Q2. read more

Choppy GDP data risks masking underlying weakness in Canadian economy

Choppy GDP data risks masking underlying weakness in Canadian economy

The first estimate of Q3 GDP showed the Canadian economy contracting -0.3% QoQ, or -1.1% in annualised terms. read more

ECB’s 2% inflation target is in sight

ECB’s 2% inflation target is in sight

The flash estimate of euro area inflation for November confirmed the disinflationary signals from the national data released over the past day. read more

UK economy accelerates in November

UK economy accelerates in November

November’s flash PMIs once again support Monex's view that the UK economy is merely in a state of stagnation as opposed to outright contraction. read more

Weak growth in Europe is starting to impact the labour market

Weak growth in Europe is starting to impact the labour market

The general theme across November’s flash eurozone PMIs is that the continued slowdown in economic growth is starting to manifest within the labour market. read more

Inflation cools considerably in Canada at the start of Q4

Inflation cools considerably in Canada at the start of Q4

Canadian headline CPI fell 0.7 percentage points to 3.1% YoY at the start of the fourth quarter, in line with economist expectations. read more

UK inflation falls sharply as expected, adding to the probability of a soft landing

UK inflation falls sharply as expected, adding to the probability of a soft landing

This morning's October CPI print saw UK inflation decelerate sharply, fractionally undershooting the market consensus. read more

US core services inflation cools, sparking a relief rally against the dollar

US core services inflation cools, sparking a relief rally against the dollar

US headline inflation fell from 3.7% to 3.2% YoY in October following a flat month-on-month reading, but the focus for markets remains on the core index. read more

UK wages continue to slow under the surface, despite a headline beat

UK wages continue to slow under the surface, despite a headline beat

Whilst this morning’s UK labour market data release surprised to the upside on headline measures, the details of the report provide plenty of good news. read more

UK growth exceeds expectations to flatline in Q3

UK growth exceeds expectations to flatline in Q3

UK GDP figures out this morning revealed a surprise 0.2% economic expansion in September, enough to keep the economy from contracting in the third quarter. read more

Weakness in North American jobs data fuels rate cut speculation

Weakness in North American jobs data fuels rate cut speculation

At 150k, however, today’s US net employment figure considerably undershot expectations. Canada’s October jobs report came in similarly soft. read more

Bank of England holds firm at 5.25% despite brewing growth concerns

Bank of England holds firm at 5.25% despite brewing growth concerns

The Bank of England has held the Bank Rate at 5.25% for the second consecutive meeting, in line with market consensus and our own pre-announcement call. read more

Powell keeps December rate hike alive

Powell keeps December rate hike alive

The FOMC unanimously voted to keep the policy rate on hold today at 5.25-5.5%, in what became a widely expected decision. read more

Monex’s November 2023 FX Forecasts

Monex’s November 2023 FX Forecasts

November looks like it could bring much of the same as October, with the dollar's path higher set to remain stymied at least in part by rate dynamics. read more

Another quarter devoid of growth leaves the BoC in limbo until 24Q1

Another quarter devoid of growth leaves the BoC in limbo until 24Q1

The Canadian economy continued to flatline in August, as an increase in the services sector (+0.1% MoM) was netted off by a contraction in goods (-0.2%). read more

ECB holds rates, minimum reserve requirements, and keeps PEPP reinvestment language

ECB holds rates, minimum reserve requirements, and keeps PEPP reinvestment language

The ECB held its main policy rates today at its October meeting, marking the first pause after ten successive rate hikes since the cycle began in July 2022. read more

US economy posts monster gain in Q3, but don’t expect a repeat

US economy posts monster gain in Q3, but don’t expect a repeat

In today's release of US Q3 GDP data, the US economy expanded by 4.9% annualised in Q3, beating economist expectations for a 4.5% print. read more

BoC hesitant to call an end to its hiking cycle

BoC hesitant to call an end to its hiking cycle

The Bank of Canada held rates at 5% for the second consecutive meeting since it resumed its hiking cycle with two consecutive 25bp hikes in June and July. read more

US PMIs show the exceptionalism narrative still has legs

US PMIs show the exceptionalism narrative still has legs

Flash PMI data for the US improved across the board, with S&P Global’s measures of manufacturing, services, and the composite all beating expectations. read more

UK economy seen flatlining in the fourth quarter

UK economy seen flatlining in the fourth quarter

The UK's latest flash PMIs show an economy flatlining, but not to an extent that recession appears more likely than not. read more

October’s PMIs increase the likelihood of a eurozone recession in Q4

October’s PMIs increase the likelihood of a eurozone recession in Q4

The eurozone’s flash PMIs made for grim reading yet again, raising the risk of an earlier and more aggressive easing cycle in 2024 than markets are pricing. read more

Soft August retail sales confirm consumer demand slowdown in Canada

Soft August retail sales confirm consumer demand slowdown in Canada

Canadian retail sales for August met expectations at -0.1% MoM, softening from a 0.3% print the month prior. read more

Grim retail sales data takes further BoE rate hiking off the table

Grim retail sales data takes further BoE rate hiking off the table

Retail sales data out this morning showed an alarming slide in consumer spending, putting the prospect of a UK recession back on the table for policymakers. read more

Turning bearish on CAD as recession odds mount

Turning bearish on CAD as recession odds mount

After remaining relatively range-bound for most of 2023, growing geopolitical risks have led the Canadian dollar to depreciate towards year-to-date lows. read more

UK inflation data posts a modest beat, but changes little for the BoE

UK inflation data posts a modest beat, but changes little for the BoE

UK inflation data out this morning delivered a modest beat, though it remains tracking below the BoE’s August forecasts. read more

Cooler inflation in Canada crushes the chance of a hike next week

Cooler inflation in Canada crushes the chance of a hike next week

Headline inflation in Canada fell by two tenths of a percent to 3.8% YoY, as the monthly impulse turned negative at -0.1% MoM. read more

The peak is now in for UK wage growth

The peak is now in for UK wage growth

Wage growth fell in August across all key measures in new data out this morning, providing welcome though widely expected relief on Threadneedle Street. read more

BoC’s Q3 surveys paint stagflationary outlook

BoC’s Q3 surveys paint stagflationary outlook

The outlook for the Canadian economy is bleak, as per the Bank of Canada’s latest Q3 surveys. We now look towards September’s inflation report tomorrow. read more

Thirteen is unlucky for some, but maybe not the dollar

Thirteen is unlucky for some, but maybe not the dollar

Next week, in terms of economic events, the calendar provides plenty to excite markets. read more

Monex’s October 2023 FX Forecasts

Monex’s October 2023 FX Forecasts

This month, growth concerns predominate across advanced economies, whilst policy easing is increasingly a focus for emerging market central banks. read more

Markets forced to trade in turbulent waters

Markets forced to trade in turbulent waters

In the coming week, increased levels of intraday volatility are likely to persist, with US political woes over the weekend, concerns over China and Friday's NFP report. read more

Canada’s economy continued to stagnate into Q3

Canada’s economy continued to stagnate into Q3

Canada’s economy didn’t grow or shrink in July, with month-on-month growth coming in a tenth below consensus estimates. read more

Inflation data in Europe improves just as the outlook deteriorates

Inflation data in Europe improves just as the outlook deteriorates

Inflation data in the eurozone is finally showing signs of breaking lower, to the relief of ECB policymakers. read more

Upside in USDCHF to be capped by EURUSD downside and SNB intervention

Upside in USDCHF to be capped by EURUSD downside and SNB intervention

Monex's base case is for SNB intervention to result in EURCHF trading within the current 0.95-0.97 range for the remainder of this year. read more

BoE holds rates at 5.25% in “finely balanced” decision

BoE holds rates at 5.25% in “finely balanced” decision

The BoE today voted 5-4 in favour of holding rates at 5.25% as opposed to hiking a further 25bps, with Governor Bailey playing kingmaker in the decision. read more

Monex’s September 2023 FX Forecasts

Monex’s September 2023 FX Forecasts

Our Monex analysts continue to favour the greenback against yield (JPY) and growth sensitive (EUR and CNY) currencies over the next month. read more

Monex’s August 2023 FX Forecasts

Monex’s August 2023 FX Forecasts

With the risk of the Fed hiking once more in Q4 still credible, we expect the shallow and bumpy downtrend in the dollar to continue throughout Q3. read more

Expect more GBP downside on underwhelming BoE

Expect more GBP downside on underwhelming BoE

Our analysts expect the Bank of England will hike 25bp in August following weak inflation data leading to further depreciation in the pound. read more

Monex’s July 2023 FX Forecasts 

Monex’s July 2023 FX Forecasts 

Although the global tightening cycle is approaching its final phase, monetary policy remains one of the primary drivers of FX market price action. read more

ECB forces markets to reconsider 4% terminal rate

ECB forces markets to reconsider 4% terminal rate

The European Central Bank today raised all its key interest rates by 25bps, taking the deposit rate to 3.5%, the refinancing rate to 4% and the marginal lending facility rate to 4.25%. read more

Monex’s June 2023 FX Forecasts

Monex’s June 2023 FX Forecasts

Market price action over the past month was dominated by the twin themes of political dysfunction and economic convergence. read more

Monex’s May 2023 FX Forecasts

Monex’s May 2023 FX Forecasts

With central banks in the US and elsewhere hitting the end of their hiking cycles, we see near-term policy expectations losing some impact on FX volatility. read more

Monex’s April 2023 FX Forecasts

Monex’s April 2023 FX Forecasts

Whilst our FX Analysts' March forecasts have broadly panned out, it was the driving force behind these moves that came as a surprise to them. read more

Monex’s March 2023 FX Forecasts

Monex’s March 2023 FX Forecasts

Our FX analysts expect a reversal in some of February's price action on the back of reduced upside risk to US rates and potentially reduced volatility within the space. Here's a look at the latest Monex FX Forecasts for March 2023. read more

Monex’s February 2023 FX Forecasts

Monex’s February 2023 FX Forecasts

The market's repositioning has been quite aggressive to date, leading us to believe that the dollar is overdue a period of consolidation in the near-term. read more

Macro Outlook 2023: The macro climate remains challenging for investors

Macro Outlook 2023: The macro climate remains challenging for investors

Following a volatile year defined by rising inflation pressures, the macro environment is unlikely to ease up for investors in 2023. read more

Monex’s December 2022 FX Forecasts

Monex’s December 2022 FX Forecasts

Our house view has now shifted tactically neutral on the US dollar in the near term and await a shift in structural factors to trigger a secular decline in the dollar. read more

Monex’s November 2022 FX Forecasts

Monex’s November 2022 FX Forecasts

For now, our outlook on the dollar remains constructive until jobs and inflation data allow the Fed to downshift. read more

Monex’s October 2022 FX Forecasts

Monex’s October 2022 FX Forecasts

Although a high level of bond market volatility is filtering through to FX markets our analysts believe the dollar has a structural basis to grind higher in Q4. read more

Week Ahead: Fire sale in markets may not ease despite thinner data calendar

Week Ahead: Fire sale in markets may not ease despite thinner data calendar

In the week ahead, the economic calendar dies down slightly, although the start to the week might not be frictionless as traders return with the results of Italy’s latest election. read more

The not so “mini” UK budget

The not so “mini” UK budget

At today’s mini-budget, newly appointed Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng announced a substantial easing of fiscal policy that awoke the bond vigilantes and sent the gilt curve substantially higher, led by the front-end. read more

Week Ahead: Deluge of central bank decisions populate next week’s calendar

Week Ahead: Deluge of central bank decisions populate next week’s calendar

In the week ahead, the data calendar is dominated by a torrent of interest rate decisions as nine major central banks prepare to adjust their monetary policy. The main event, however, will be Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision. read more

Monex’s September 2022 FX Forecasts

Monex’s September 2022 FX Forecasts

Our forecasts are more bullish on the dollar as we no longer expect the Fed’s downshift to 50bps in September to be as supportive for risk conditions. read more

Monex’s August 2022 FX Forecasts

Monex’s August 2022 FX Forecasts

DXY index is likely to stay supported, owing to our expectation that the euro-area’s growth outlook will force another run on parity this month. read more

Monex’s July 2022 FX Forecasts

Monex’s July 2022 FX Forecasts

Read Monex's July 2022 FX Forecasts. Find our what our top forecasters expect for currency markets, amid ongoing recession concerns and higher inflation. read more

Spooked by services inflation, the BoE doves fall back in line

Spooked by services inflation, the BoE doves fall back in line

The Bank of England voted 6-3 in favour of raising rates by 25bps to 1.25%. The dissenters (Haskell, Mann, and Saunders) all voted to hike rates by 50bps, in order to mitigate against risks that wage growth, firms’ pricing decisions, and inflation expectations fuel persistence in above-target inflation. read more

Monex’s June 2022 FX Forecasts

Monex’s June 2022 FX Forecasts

Read Monex's June 2022 FX Forecasts. Find our what our top forecasters expect for currency markets, amid ongoing global growth and inflation concerns. read more

Monex’s May 2022 FX Forecasts

Monex’s May 2022 FX Forecasts

Read Monex's May 2022 FX Forecasts. Find our what our top forecasters expect for currency markets, amid current geopolitical events and uncertain conditions. read more

CAD Outlook: Loonie strength to continue in Q2 on higher oil and BoC support

CAD Outlook: Loonie strength to continue in Q2 on higher oil and BoC support

The Canadian dollar has been highly sensitive to monetary policy actions and price action in global commodities over the course of Q1. Under our base case for commodities and the Bank of Canada in Q2, which envisages two 50bp hikes, we believe gains in the Canadian dollar are likely to continue. However, our flatter forecast for the BoC policy rate in H2 will likely weigh on the loonie at the margin as the pace of Fed tightening overtakes that of the Bank of Canada. read more

Monex’s April 2022 FX Forecasts

Monex’s April 2022 FX Forecasts

While the limited progress in peace talks towards the end of the month blurred the overall dollar dynamics due to a positive boost to regional risk sentiment, we still expect some of the dominant drivers of FX markets from March to remain in play in April. read more

Russia-Ukraine makes central banks think twice about hikes

Russia-Ukraine makes central banks think twice about hikes

Risk sentiment chopped and changed throughout the week as all eyes remained on Russia-Ukraine developments. This week monetary policy decisions by the FOMC and BoE are set to show similar levels of caution to the ECB, although both central banks are still expected to hike interest rates by 25bps. read more

Euro jolts above 1.11 as ECB surprises markets with hawkish move despite war in Ukraine

Euro jolts above 1.11 as ECB surprises markets with hawkish move despite war in Ukraine

Today’s European Central Bank decision came as music to the ears of EUR bulls. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine having materially changed the eurozone risk profile in a matter of weeks, the last thing markets expected was for the ECB - which is usually very cautious around its wording - to come out with a definitive announcement of a faster taper to their QE programme. read more

US inflation highest since January 1982, but markets unfazed

US inflation highest since January 1982, but markets unfazed

US headline inflation today printed at 7.9% YoY for February, up from 7.5% in January, to record the fastest pace of price growth in 40 years. Unlike in previous readings, however, the core reading was much more muted at just 0.5% MoM. read more

EUR Update: European currencies battered by latest Russia-Ukraine headlines – is there a floor?

EUR Update: European currencies battered by latest Russia-Ukraine headlines – is there a floor?

Since the publication of our latest FX forecasts at the beginning of the month, significant developments in the Russia-Ukraine war have put increased pressure on European currencies and equities. Over the last month, the respective currencies of these nations have therefore performed even worse than the euro. The question now is; where will price action stabilise? read more

Monex’s March 2022 FX Forecasts

Monex’s March 2022 FX Forecasts

Geopolitical events are likely to continue driving FX markets in the near-term and with no clear end game as things stand, our forecasts remain under review. Our base case scenario at present is that the pace of geopolitical developments slow in March, but recent events result in a material deterioration in Europe’s macroeconomic backdrop and a still tentative risk environment. read more

EUR Update: Fluid backdrop to keep volatility elevated

EUR Update: Fluid backdrop to keep volatility elevated

The ongoing political risk in Europe means EURUSD is going to remain an easy target within the G10, while rising US Treasury yields the euro’s sensitivity to them will also be a risk. Looking over to H2, an improvement in global growth conditions will be more deterministic for the euro when the monetary outlook and political backdrop has become more stable. read more

Monex’s February 2022 FX Forecasts

Monex’s February 2022 FX Forecasts

Looking ahead, our FX analysts expect the dollar’s strength to be more nuanced in February and for it to be isolated against currencies where rates are likely to lag the rise in US rates. In our forecasts, this largely pertains to EUR, JPY and CNY. read more

BRL Outlook: Hawkish BCB to offset depreciation, but political risks may tip the balance

BRL Outlook: Hawkish BCB to offset depreciation, but political risks may tip the balance

As the year progresses, the Brazilian general elections that are set to be held in October will become increasingly relevant for FX markets given the real’s reputation of weakening in times of political uncertainty and upcoming elections. read more

UK economy finally recovers to above pre-pandemic levels of output

UK economy finally recovers to above pre-pandemic levels of output

Today's release of UK GDP data for November saw economic activity more than double the consensus estimate with a print of 0.9% MoM. In addition to this, October’s monthly GDP reading was revised upwards from 0.1% to 0.2%. read more

Monex’s 12 key market themes for 2022

Monex’s 12 key market themes for 2022

Trade ideas tend to have a short shelflife in today's market, so instead of issuing trade suggestions for 2022, we have opted to outline the main themes we think will dominate market price action in the coming 12 months. read more

US inflation near 40-year high, but financial markets are underwhelmed

US inflation near 40-year high, but financial markets are underwhelmed

Despite the US CPI release showed that headline inflation is sitting at its highest point since June 1982, the reaction in the Treasury market was counterintuitive and the dollar sold-off against its G10 peers. read more

US and Canadian labour market reactive

US and Canadian labour market reactive

Expectations for today’s US payrolls data were high after multiple sell-side forecasters revised their projections for the net employment figure upwards following the higher ADP and Homebase data from earlier in the week. read more

FOMC meeting minutes strike hawkish tone, but it’s one for the fixed income traders

FOMC meeting minutes strike hawkish tone, but it’s one for the fixed income traders

It seems today's FOMC meeting minutes is one for the fixed income traders as opposed to the FX space. For FX markets, the impact of today’s meeting minutes will likely play out over the course of the week, especially as December’s jobs data is released on Friday following bumper ADP and Homebase indicators earlier in the week. read more

Monex January 2022 FX Forecasts

Monex January 2022 FX Forecasts

Looking ahead to 2022, our forecasts have been adjusted to take into account the new sensitivities of central banks to inflation, continuing virus risks and the likely slowdown in growth in Q1. Omicron risk continues to dominate as policymakers conduct a balancing act in order to mitigate the health and economic impacts. read more

Bank of Canada formalises its implicit employment goal in new inflation mandate

Bank of Canada formalises its implicit employment goal in new inflation mandate

While today’s announcement falls in line with what economists were largely expecting and is merely a formalisation of the mandate that has been in practice since the onset of the pandemic, it is being viewed as a marginal dovish development by markets. read more

Omicroncerns clouding the monetary outlook ahead of year end

Omicroncerns clouding the monetary outlook ahead of year end

Next week’s (13th - 17th December) calendar includes nine central banks scheduled to announce their policy decisions, which means FX volatility is likely to pick up. All of which are likely to be clouded by concerns over the impact of the Omicron variant. read more

BoC and NBP to keep markets busy ahead of US CPI

BoC and NBP to keep markets busy ahead of US CPI

Next week’s (6th - 10th November) calendar includes a BoC meeting and an NBP meeting, along with several CPI releases including the US. While the BoC is expected to hold fire on Wednesday, Thursday’s speech from BoC Deputy Governor Gravelle will be heavily watched. read more

Lower growth profile and rising US yields call for downgraded EUR calls

Lower growth profile and rising US yields call for downgraded EUR calls

In November, significant downside risks to our November forecasts materialised, with growth concerns and rising US yields pushing EURUSD down from 1.16 to the 1.12 level. Growth concerns arose as some eurozone countries went into light lockdowns. read more

Projected rate paths are key for NZD and SEK

Projected rate paths are key for NZD and SEK

Next week (22nd - 26th November), focus remains on how markets price central bank tolerances to inflation and global growth conditions as Covid cases begin to rise and force major nations to impose tighter containment measures. read more

UK CPI, labour market data keep BoE on track for December hike

UK CPI, labour market data keep BoE on track for December hike

UK CPI massively outstripped expectations to print at its highest 12-month rate since December 2011, and the month-on-month change saw the pace of price increases reach a high not seen since April 1993. While today’s data exceeded the consensus estimate from economists, it is broadly in line with the BoE’s projections, which envisage CPI peaking at 5% in April 2022 when Ofgem adjusts its price cap again. read more

US CPI keeps markets volatile following the central bank bonanza

US CPI keeps markets volatile following the central bank bonanza

Next week (15th - 19th November), CPI remains top of mind as a number of nations are set to release reports highlighting above target price growth, however, we believe these releases will have less of an impact on broader markets relative to the US release this week. Additionally, central banks from South Africa and Turkey are expected to deliver fresh rate decisions.  read more

US inflation tracks back above 6%, placing pressure on transitory messaging 

US inflation tracks back above 6%, placing pressure on transitory messaging 

With expectations for October’s CPI print to rise from 5.4% to 5.9% YoY already in play, today’s inflation release had to be big to disrupt markets beyond what had already been priced into the Treasury curve and in the FX space during the morning session. read more

ECB and Fed speakers in scope after dovish retaliation

ECB and Fed speakers in scope after dovish retaliation

Next week (8th - 12th November), despite the absence of any major central bank meetings, the focus will remain on monetary policy pricing, especially as the Fed’s media blackout period ends. Notable speeches from Chicago Fed Evans and San Francisco’s Daly will be in scope for US rate traders, while opening remarks from the ECB’s Chief Economist Lane will be top of mind for euro money markets. read more

Strong payrolls keep US front-end yields firm, boosting the dollar 

Strong payrolls keep US front-end yields firm, boosting the dollar 

Amid the dovish pushback from G10 central banks this week and the broad rally in bond markets, front-end US Treasury yields have remained fairly resilient. This theme was extended in early trading today, helping the dollar gain ground ahead of October’s payroll data. While Canada’s net employment change undershot expectations by 10.4k with a print of 31.2k, today's LFS largely met our expectations. read more

Bank of England bats back market expectations, sends sterling plummeting

Bank of England bats back market expectations, sends sterling plummeting

The Bank of England today shocked markets by voting 7-2 to hold rates at 0.1% while voting 6-3 to maintain the current stock of assets at £875bn. While we largely expected the Bank to hit back against aggressive market pricing of rate hikes by holding rates, we anticipated a tighter split in the vote in order to signal to markets that tighter policy was imminent at December’s meeting.  read more

Time to taper, but that is all from the Fed for now

Time to taper, but that is all from the Fed for now

The Federal Reserve largely met the market consensus today by announcing plans to taper its QE programme by a maximum of $15bn per month until year-end. Powell opened the door further to give policymakers greater optionality going forward. read more

The central bank magic trick: turning a dove into a hawk in plain sight

The central bank magic trick: turning a dove into a hawk in plain sight

Price action in G10 FX markets this week has been driven predominantly by pricing in bond markets and the actions of central banks. This dynamic is set to continue next week (1st - 5th November) as the battle against rising inflation migrates from the Bank of Canada and the ECB  to the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of England. read more

ECB meeting: Inflation, inflation, inflation

ECB meeting: Inflation, inflation, inflation

Despite the suppressed expectations, the ECB managed to dull the event down even further by adjusting their opening statement such that it indicates the decision would not include an assessment of the economic outlook. The lack of excitement was visible across markets, as EURUSD remained unfazed after the release of the initial rate statement. read more

Bank of Canada ends QE and emboldens hawkish market pricing 

Bank of Canada ends QE and emboldens hawkish market pricing 

The Bank of Canada today announced that it would taper its QE programme by a further C$1bn a week, therefore entering the reinvestment stage, while it also brought forward its forecast for the output gap closing from H2 2022 to “the middle quarters” of next year. read more

Central banks to take centre stage ahead of crucial GDP readings

Central banks to take centre stage ahead of crucial GDP readings

A flurry of central bank meetings take will place across the globe next week (25th - 29th October), while Q3 GDP prints from the US and eurozone will take centre stage on Friday. Several countries will also release inflation readings. Among the central bank meetings are the Bank of Canada, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank - in order of importance. read more

EUR Update: Euro weighed down by near-term factors, medium-term outlook rosier

EUR Update: Euro weighed down by near-term factors, medium-term outlook rosier

While September’s losses were significant at over 2%, we expect the pressure on the euro to ease over the coming months as supply pressures mitigate, which should help to cool inflation and aid growth conditions. We expect the combination of these developments to be supportive for EURUSD. read more

Economic activity and inflation data put stagflation fears to the test 

Economic activity and inflation data put stagflation fears to the test 

Next week (18th - 22nd October), the data calendar revolves around October’s preliminary PMI prints, while China’s Q3 GDP data also scans as one of the more interesting releases. The focus on activity data is likely to be heightened given growth concerns over previous weeks and the impact higher input costs are having. This is especially the case in the eurozone, UK, and China, where rising energy costs are the most pronounced. read more

USD Update: Defiant dollar in Q4

USD Update: Defiant dollar in Q4

Amid the global backdrop of lower growth and higher inflation, the dollar is likely to stay well bid in Q4. However, our latest forecasts now see the DXY index trading a percentage point lower than current spot levels and back towards highs of its previous trading range as the aggressive repricing in FX markets overextended in early October given our views on back-end US rates this year. read more

Big miss in ZEW fails to dent EURUSD as G10 yields moderate

Big miss in ZEW fails to dent EURUSD as G10 yields moderate

Today’s miss in the German ZEW data highlights how German activity is struggling to expand at the start of Q4 as current conditions are no longer improving. The current situation gauge tumbled from 31.9 in September to 21.6 in October, well below expectations of 28.5. EURUSD escaped the lack of optimism spilling into FX markets despite the big miss in today’s ZEW data, as at the same time yields in G10 markets have been moderating today after yesterday’s dramatic climb higher. read more

Macro backdrop of slower growth and rising inflation set to dominate FX markets

Macro backdrop of slower growth and rising inflation set to dominate FX markets

Next week (11th - 15th October), with a limited data calendar, markets are likely to continue focusing on the inflation backdrop and the impact it will have on growth conditions. We take a brief look at the environment in Europe this week and what it means for ECB and BoE pricing. read more

Diverging labour reports play out in North America

Diverging labour reports play out in North America

It was our expectation that today’s Canadian and US labour market reports would show a stark divergence, not only in net employment but also in underlying metrics. This ultimately played out, with the US jobs market adding 194k jobs in September compared with expectations of a 500k increase, while Canada added 157.1k jobs relative to expectations of just a 60k net employment gain. read more

Grappling with the stagflationary backdrop

Grappling with the stagflationary backdrop

Next week (27th September - 1st October), the focus shifts from policy announcements to individual central bankers. The RBA, RBNZ and NBP will have to announce their policy decisions given the latest downturn in the global economic outlook, while on the data front, US and Canadian labour market data stands out. read more

From policy announcements to central bank speakers

From policy announcements to central bank speakers

Next week (27th September - 1st October), the focus quickly shifts from policy announcements to individual central bankers as a swathe of speakers fill the economic calendar, largely due to the ECB’s forum on central banking taking place between the 28th and 29th of September. Rather than being in Sintra (Portugal) as has been customary, the event will take place online. read more

Bank of England delivers hawkish surprise, even by the markets standard

Bank of England delivers hawkish surprise, even by the markets standard

The Bank of England today voted unanimously to keep the Bank Rate at 0.1%, while members voted 7-2 in favour of continuing with its existing QE programme. The shift in the QE vote, from 7-1 to 7-2 due to Ramsden joining Saunders in dissenting, set the tone for what was to be a hawkish set of meeting minutes despite their Q3 GDP projection being downgraded by around a percentage point. read more

Fed signals faster tapering in 2023 but under-delivers on next year’s dot plot

Fed signals faster tapering in 2023 but under-delivers on next year’s dot plot

For those looking for an explosive Fed meeting, they may have initially been disappointed by the alterations in the dot plot. However, Powell’s comments meant volatility wasn’t absent in the FX space, with the likes of EURUSD swinging within a 0.55% range and USDJPY climbing over half a per cent higher on the day.  read more

Central bank bonanza

Central bank bonanza

The 20th - 24th September is packed with central bank meetings, with the FOMC’s decision on Wednesday eyed as the most important economic event by markets. On top of that, the Bank of England is set to release their latest policy decision, while the Norges Bank is expected to be the first G10 central bank to raise rates since the pandemic. read more

Inflation to sit top of mind next week

Inflation to sit top of mind next week

Next week’s data calendar focuses heavily on inflation data in major developed market economies, while core CPI readings from Poland and inflation expectations data in Turkey will be viewed amid historically high CPI readings. read more

Central banks set to stretch hawkish wings 

Central banks set to stretch hawkish wings 

Next week, price action in US fixed income markets will continue to garner a lot of market attention, while increasingly hawkish central bank developments will also be in scope. Of note is the Reserve Bank of Australia, who we expect to press on with tapering their QE programme, the Bank of Russia who are expected to hike by 50bps, the National Bank of Poland who will battle with record high inflation, and the European Central Bank. read more

Focus shifts from Jackson Hole to US jobs data

Focus shifts from Jackson Hole to US jobs data

In the week beginning Monday 30th August, the market’s emphasis shifts to monitoring the severity of the latest Covid-19 waves driven by the delta variant, the economic impact they are having via timely data points, and August’s Nonfarm Payrolls data next week. Fixed income and money markets will be taking their cues from the latest payroll data in order to price expectations of September’s Fed meeting. read more

Jackson Hole arrives after a volatile week for macro conditions

Jackson Hole arrives after a volatile week for macro conditions

With a tentative macroeconomic backdrop, next week’s data is likely to have a larger market impact than usual, especially with the quantity of preliminary PMI releases for August. The Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium should provide markets with a bit more clarity as to its tapering timeline. read more

One week closer to Jackson Hole

One week closer to Jackson Hole

Markets are likely to settle somewhat as they await the headlines from the Jackson Hole symposium on August 27th. Next week’s calendar suggests there may be pockets of isolated volatility with policy decisions from both the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Norges Bank, while the Reserve Bank of Australia and Federal Reserve both publish meeting minutes. read more

To hike or not to hike, that is the question

To hike or not to hike, that is the question

Markets this week have largely focused on underlying growth conditions, FOMC speakers and Friday’s labour market data, with US bond markets sending conflicting signals to FX traders. Next week (9th – 13th August), the key pieces of data centre around rate decisions from Banxico and the CBRT, both of which have reasons to hike rates due to rising inflation but also have grounds to stay pat.  read more

Canadian employment underperforms, but it isn’t all bad

Canadian employment underperforms, but it isn’t all bad

July’s employment data out of Canada saw the economy add 94,000 jobs. While on the surface, the slip looks seismic, the nature of the job additions and the stage in which the Canadian labour market recovery is at means the underperformance of the net employment data isn’t as concerning as the headline suggests. read more

Bank of England in focus after inflation overshoots and labour market progress   

Bank of England in focus after inflation overshoots and labour market progress  

Next week, the focus will be on the Bank of England to announce its policy decision and comment on the recent inflation overshoots and recovery in the labour market. read more

Q2 GDP data and the Fed are in focus amid a global third wave

Q2 GDP data and the Fed are in focus amid a global third wave

Markets will pay close attention to commentary by Chair Powell and the Fed’s assessment of current conditions. A first glance at economic performance in advanced economies in Q2 is also pinned for the week, although growing fears over the coming months might cloud the impact positive GDP figures have on markets. read more

ECB guidance to take centre stage next week, CBR set to hike rates

ECB guidance to take centre stage next week, CBR set to hike rates

The ECB takes centre stage next week, with a revamped strategy review setting the tone for a persistently more dovish course of action in the months to come, while the CBR is set to hike rates further amid a light data calendar. read more

Central banks in focus next week after Fed’s hawkish shift

Central banks in focus next week after Fed’s hawkish shift

Next week will be critical to assessing the way forward as a fresh batch of inflation data is released and several central banks face the press cameras. On the side, political developments might add excitement to markets. read more

Monetary policy in scope with FOMC minutes and ECB strategy review

Monetary policy in scope with FOMC minutes and ECB strategy review

This week (5th - 9th July), the meeting minutes from the Fed’s June meeting will be scoured by market participants as they try to gain a clearer view on future US interest rates, and the ECB’s Governing Council is set to also meet next week in Frankfurt to discuss the ongoing policy review. read more

First Nonfarm Payrolls since Fed may cause significant volatility

First Nonfarm Payrolls since Fed may cause significant volatility

Last week, volatility in FX markets was largely driven by the hawkish shift by the FOMC, as broad dollar moves drove price action in G10 currency pairs. This week, the focus remains largely on the US, with the release of the first Nonfarm Payrolls report since last week’s Fed meeting. read more

Markets to tune into FOMC speakers after the Fed’s hawkish shift

Markets to tune into FOMC speakers after the Fed’s hawkish shift

The focus next week will now be on US data and whether that can live up to the expectations set by the Federal Reserve, while a few FOMC speakers will provide markets with a bit more clarity on their position on the economic outlook.  read more

A week of central bank decisions but the Fed will draw most of the focus

A week of central bank decisions but the Fed will draw most of the focus

The Federal Reserve, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, and the Central Bank of Brazil are likely to be the most exciting on this week's agenda. Over the weekend, events in the UK will focussed on the government’s decision to stick to its June 21st reopening plan as cases of the delta variant rise.  read more

It is all about PEPP

It is all about PEPP

Looking ahead, central banks will come back to the fore next week with the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, and the Bank of Russia releasing their latest policy decisions. The ECB is likely to steal the show as speculation over the next PEPP decision rises. read more

All eyes on US and Canada labour market data after underwhelming April reports

All eyes on US and Canada labour market data after underwhelming April reports

Next week (31st - 4th June), the focus turns to labour market data from the US and Canada after April’s underwhelming reports. Also on the agenda are policy decisions from the RBA and Reserve Bank of India and China’s official manufacturing PMI. read more

Limited top-tier economic data puts USD dynamics further into focus

Limited top-tier economic data puts USD dynamics further into focus

Next week (24th - 28th May), the economic calendar is light on major market-moving events. US PCE inflation stands out as the most high profile data point on the calendar along with the latest RBNZ rate decision, while the focus will remain on central bank speakers. read more

European vaccine rollout takes centre stage while developing countries struggle with a dire Covid situation

European vaccine rollout takes centre stage while developing countries struggle with a dire Covid situation

We continue to track the evolution of the vaccine rollout in major economies, as a timely gauge of potential reopening and global economic recovery. In this edition, we highlight the European efforts to catch up with front-runners like the UK and US, while stressing the dire picture in some emerging markets. read more

A post Brexit Britain leaves sterling at the mercy of Covid-19 developments

A post Brexit Britain leaves sterling at the mercy of Covid-19 developments

The stale nature of Brexit developments over the course of Q4 means it has been some time since our last GDP outlook. In the latter stage of 2020, despite Covid-19 developments, the pound continued to trade based off no-deal Brexit risk as the clock wound down and negotiations stalled. read more

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