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Loonie tops the G10 currency board with solid rally
Yesterday, the Canadian dollar was the best-performing G10 currency against the US dollar, rallying by 0.6% as investors covered their risk-off shorts. read more
Loonie notches minor rally as risk backdrop stabilises
This morning, with the risk backdrop much more stable after a constructive open for European equities, the loonie is trading 0.1% higher. read more
Data remains a peripheral concern as financial stability is still in question
While next week’s data calendar remains fairly full in terms of events, ultimately it is likely to play second fiddle to the main event taking place in bank stocks and corporate debt markets. read more
Yellen killed the CAD rally
The dollar took a bit of a back seat in yesterday’s European session as the initial wave of depreciation post-Fed flushed through overnight. read more
Bank of England likely reaches terminal rates
Following in the footsteps of the Fed, the Bank of England today hiked rates by 25bp, bringing Bank Rate to 4.25% in line with market consensus and our pre-meeting call. read more
CAD rallies on dovish Fed, while hawkish BoC minutes overlooked
Today, nothing pertaining to Canada is scheduled on the economic calendar, meaning the loonie is likely to continue trading in line with the broad move in G10 FX. read more
Fed tries to install confidence, but markets aren’t buying it
The Federal Reserve raised the Fed funds target range today by 25 basis points to 4.75-5.00%, a move that was in line with the consensus. read more
Loonie slips as inflation continues to cool
The Canadian dollar has slipped by a third of a percent against the US dollar on widening interest rate differentials. read more
Fed preview: 25bps is looking more likely, but at what cost?
We expect the Fed to continue to signal a marginally hawkish message on rates while leaving financial stability concerns to supplementary measures. read more
Canada CPI cools in February, reducing the pressure for more hikes
Headline inflation fell to 5.2% in Canada, missing expectations for 5.4%. Price pressures were also weaker than expected on a sequential basis. read more
Freeland adds to the BoC’s plate
The Canadian dollar strengthened by about half a percent against the US dollar as global risk aversion related to recent banking troubles eased. read more
Expect further Cad depreciation this week as investor sentiment remains in tatters
With financial stability concerns remaining front and centre for investors, we continue to expect CAD depreciation. read more
It isn’t over yet
This week is likely to see the same as last, with concerns over the stability of several banks continuing to linger. read more
Loonie continues to lag broader recovery
With risk aversion diminishing, the S&P 500 rallied 1.8% in yesterday’s session, supporting a 0.3% rise in CAD against the US dollar. read more
ECB hikes 50bps, aborts forward guidance
In line with our expectations, the ECB took the decision to raise all three of its key interest rates by 50bps this afternoon. read more
CAD suffers double whammy of blows
Credit Suisse news dominated the headlines yesterday, leading markets to trade in risk-off fashion, causing the loonie to fall -0.6% against the greenback. read more
Spring Budget gets away with growth agenda as bond markets distracted by bank stocks
In a return to time-honoured tradition, the Chancellor delivered his Budget to Parliament earlier today, the first since 2021. read more
Loonie’s recovery may have met resistance
The loonie retraced some losses it recorded over the past week in yesterday’s session, but USDCAD remains 0.5% above where it opened Tuesday last week. read more
Loonie starts to outperform G10 FX as risk conditions stabilise
The shift in yields supported the loonie, which surged by an impressive +0.74% against the dollar and wiped out the last three days of losses. read more
Loonie is the laggard as markets find cleaner USD short expressions
Despite the rally in high beta currencies over the past week, the loonie has been the laggard. Additionally, with financial stability considerations back in the limelight, the risks from Canada’s highly leveraged housing market are likely resulting in markets finding cleaner expressions to re-engage in short US dollar positions. read more
Another trip on the merry-go-round
The round trip in market pricing left traders with tired eyes, but they won’t have time to rest as concerns over the US credit market are likely to extend. read more
Fed to stick with 25bps, but potentially for longer
The US economy added 311k jobs in February, down from January’s monstrous 504k but still printed above consensus estimates (225k) for the eleventh month in a row. read more
Canada job growth beats expectations while wages rise, which could turn the BoC more hawkish
Canada’s economy added 22,000 jobs in February, more than doubling expectations for a 10,000 gain. While the figure was stronger than consensus, it marks a significant slowdown from January’s 150,000 increase. read more
Lagging loonie continues to weaken, expect extreme volatility today
Today’s data will be crucial for markets. The Canadian dollar was the worst-performing G10 currency yesterday, falling -0.2% against the US dollar. read more
Loonie slips to 5-month low after BoC holds rates
The Bank of Canada met expectations for a pause yesterday, holding its policy rate at 4.5% with a slightly hawkish statement. read more
Bank of Canada holds at 4.5%, delivers mildly hawkish rate statement
Today, the Bank of Canada followed through on its guidance from January, holding its policy interest rate at 4.5%. The Bank also noted that it is “prepared to increase the policy rate further if needed to return to the 2% [inflation] target.” read more
Loonie drops on Powell comments, BoC to hold today
Today, the Bank of Canada will conduct its latest monetary policy decision. Our view is that the BoC will become the first G10 central bank to hold rates. read more
Still rangebound
The loonie didn’t move much on Monday, trading tightly within the equilibrium zone that it’s settled at over the past two weeks. read more
Focus for the loonie is likely to be closer to home this week
This week, focus for CAD traders will likely take a domestic focus as the Bank of Canada is expected to announce its latest policy decision on Wednesday. read more
Everything can change in a New York minute
Given the amount of market-moving events scheduled for next week, it is highly likely that volatility in FX markets picks up in a more sustained fashion. read more
USDCAD might have hit a pre-BoC ceiling
Supported by bearish risk sentiment and a broad dollar bid, USDCAD took another run at this week’s highs but failed to break through the resistance level. read more
Despite not turning the radiators on over the winter, the eurozone just got hot
The eurozone core CPI measure jumped 0.3 percentage points to another record high of 5.6% YoY, which was more than what economists had anticipated. read more
PMIs confirm rebound in activity
The latest PMI figures for Canada point to a healing manufacturing sector following a slump in the fourth quarter. read more
Monex’s March 2023 FX Forecasts
Our FX analysts expect a reversal in some of February's price action on the back of reduced upside risk to US rates and potentially reduced volatility within the space. Here's a look at the latest Monex FX Forecasts for March 2023. read more
Loonie underperforms as recession risks rise
Gross domestic product figures for the fourth quarter were released on Tuesday, showing a marked slowdown in the Canadian economy. read more
Excess demand no more: Canadian economy doesn’t grow in Q4, undershoots BoC forecasts
Canadian GDP growth was nonexistent in the fourth quarter, ending a five-quarter streak of positive growth and missing expectations for a 1.6% annualised gain. read more
Back to familiar territory for CAD
The loonie rallied against the dollar by a mild +0.3% on Monday along with every other G10 currency, supported by an improvement in global risk sentiment. read more
Equity performance will dictate overall CAD losses for February
The narrowing in drivers of inflation last week meant the market continued to buy into the BoC’s latest forward guidance that rates will be held at 4.5%. read more
Terminal pricing is again in the driver’s seat for markets
Next week, terminal rate pricing should remain the market’s key driver with the ECB’s core inflation problem likely to get worse. read more
It is eerily quiet on the FX front
Price action in USDCAD was uneventful yesterday, with moves in FX being fairly muted, and within G10 FX, evenly split against the dollar. read more
A break in the volatility
Although USDCAD formed a tight range throughout the European session yesterday, North American traders woke up bullish on the loonie. read more
What do you mean inflation moderated?
Despite the consensus that inflation moderated yesterday, it actually re-accelerated, with the consensus view that year-on-year inflation dropped. read more
US PMIs feed into the no landing discourse
The recent divergence in hard and soft data in the US has been notable and likely boils down to soft survey data having a subjective input. read more
Temporary factors drive pick-up in Canada CPI, Bank of Canada to stay on hold
Inflation pressures picked up by +0.5% month-on-month in January, although economists feared a stronger print of +0.7%. read more
UK PMIs highlight upside risks to our BoE terminal rate projection
With all the gloom from analysts and policymakers around the state of the UK economy, expectations for February's PMI readings had been fairly depressed. read more
Eurozone PMIs show no reprieve in core inflation for the ECB
The eurozone-wide PMIs saw activity conditions improve more considerably with a composite reading of 52.3, consistent with a positive GDP reading for Q1. read more
January’s CPI data could cast doubt over the BoC’s decision to pause
Most Canadian traders will return to their desk after a holiday to a moderately weaker loonie, owing to the sell-off overnight alongside global equities. read more
Political developments and another dense data calendar are likely to end a quiet start to the week for markets
The pause in the Bank of Canada’s hiking cycle has left the loonie somewhat exposed to the dollar’s recent leg higher. read more
Disinflation and CB reaction functions remain the primary drivers for FX markets
Next week’s data calendar suggests FX volatility is unlikely to abate, a view that is similarly shared within options markets. read more
Sharp talons from Fed hawks burst the risk-on bubble
Yesterday’s session offered a brief reprieve in terms of volatility, with the main event of the US producer price index for January. read more
It’s all about US rates…still
Price action in FX markets yesterday was dominated by a continued repricing of the implied path for US rates. read more
Inflation data prompts divergence in Fed and BoE pricing
Given the somewhat contradictory readings when comparing headline wage data and inflation numbers, the market reaction has been somewhat muted. read more
US inflation doesn’t fall as quickly as markets hoped, although non-housing services offered reprieve
US CPI for January printed at 6.4% YoY, down slightly from December’s reading of 6.5% and above expectations as base effects outweighed a 0.5% monthly gain. read more
CAD could post a delayed rally if US inflation falls in line with expectations
The Canadian dollar did its best impression of an ostrich yesterday, remaining grounded as its G10 FX peers took flight. read more
A Cold War continues in the skies
The Cold War in the skies has kept investor sentiment on a tentative footing this morning, although impact is concentrated in global equity benchmarks. read more
US inflation data will keep the Fed debate alive
Next week is unlikely to see FX and rates volatility subside, with the release of US CPI, a trifecta of UK labour market, inflation, and retail sales data. read more
Canada gets another huge jobs report, but read with caution
Canada’s economy added far more jobs than expected for the second consecutive month, with 150,000 new positions created in the month of January. read more
Jobs data could bring about pricing for a BoC cut
Signs of a softer jobs report than expected could well bring the idea of rate cuts in the second half of the year back into view. read more
External factors to drive CAD ahead of January’s jobs data
The loonie's underperformance was driven by the decline in US equities yesterday. Today, external factors are likely to remain in the driving seat for CAD. read more
Bank of Canada offers welcome insight in its latest meeting minutes
The Bank of Canada released its very first Summary of Governing Council deliberations today, offering markets and the general public a clearer view of how its policy decisions are made. read more
Markets brush off their forensic linguistic skills to analyse Powell, again
With little news flow in the macro world, markets continued to bid up the dollar in a continuation of the previous days' price action. read more
A hangover from Friday’s payrolls
Today, markets have slightly retraced yesterday’s price action, with equity futures tentatively trading in the green and a minor sell-off in the dollar. read more
Canadian data calendar fills out for what is set to be a historic week for the BoC
This week, the focus of USDCAD turns back to domestic developments with Governor Macklem speaking in Quebec city tomorrow. read more
Spotlight remains on central bank communications and bond market price action
Next week, the focus remains on monetary policy with a plethora of speeches from ECB, BoE and Fed officials. read more
January payrolls throw expectations of rate cuts into question
While the attention rested on the average hourly earnings (AHE) data today, it was actually the net employment figure that did the damage in markets. read more
Black Thursday for bond shorts
Price action in the euro yesterday was driven primarily by the reaction in the European government bond (EGB) market to the ECB decision. read more
Bond markets are unconvinced of the ECBs path after March
The ECB followed its December guidance by hiking all of its interest rates by 50bps, vowing that the likeliest scenario in March is a successive 50bp hike. read more
BoE lay the foundations for a lower terminal rate than markets expect
The Bank of England voted 2-7 in favour of a 50bp hike in the Bank Rate to 4%, with both Swati Dhingra and Sylvana Tenreyro continuing their dovish dissent. read more
Monex’s February 2023 FX Forecasts
The market's repositioning has been quite aggressive to date, leading us to believe that the dollar is overdue a period of consolidation in the near-term. read more
Powell fuels the risk rally ahead of the BoE and ECB
Today, the focus for the broad dollar now shifts to Europe, where we expect both the ECB and BoE to conduct a more hawkish message than the Fed yesterday. read more
Powell’s cautious optimism killed the Fed’s message
The Fed today hiked the target range for the Fed funds rate by 25bps to 4.5-4.75%, meeting both our expectations and those priced into money markets. read more
Bracing for Powell’s press conference
Fed Powell will be looking to leave the press conference with current market pricing intact. If achieved, a classic example of a damp squib for markets. read more
Dollar firms on month-end flows ahead of employment cost index data
Any deviations in the ECI will likely move expectations of tomorrow’s meeting, and could have dramatic implications for the broad dollar. read more
ECB preview: New information will be isolated to QT plans
Few surprises are expected from the ECB rate decision on Thursday, with markets and ECB President Lagarde appearing in lockstep for a second 50bp hike. read more
Stress testing the risk rally
External factors are likely to remain in the driving seat for USDCAD this week, specifically China’s PMIs given the impact they will have on risk conditions read more
Fresh interest rate decisions and Chinese PMI data to test risk rally
Next week, fresh interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and the European Central Bank will keep markets on their toes. read more
Soft survey data is underestimating US growth
Price action in yesterday’s session was fairly lethargic, likely due to the limited impact incoming data will have on upcoming monetary policy decisions. read more
Bank of Canada’s recognition of terminal weighs on rate expectations globally
The Bank of Canada was front and centre for markets yesterday, as the first G10 central bank to officially call an end to a hiking cycle for the ages. read more
Bank of Canada is the first to hit its terminal rate
The Bank of Canada today raised its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%, in line with consensus and our expectations. The decision was largely driven by recent data outturns, which show the Canadian economy continuing to operate with excess demand. read more
Bank of Canada’s decision unlikely to support CAD either way
USDCAD briefly spiked after the release of yesterday’s US PMI data as the reports confirmed expectations of more restrictive rates in the US for longer. read more
US PMIs show the Fed still has a labour market problem
The pace of the slowdown in US economic activity started to ease in January, primarily due to an improvement in service sector output. read more
No Christmas party but still a new year’s hangover for the UK economy
Whilst the UK might just have managed to escape a technical recession at the end of 2022, the new year is bringing with it some rather unpleasant surprises. read more
Flash PMIs show the ECB’s problem is looking awfully like the Fed’s
ECB members have largely delineated their battle against inflation from the Fed’s, emphasising the need to guard against inflation expectations. read more
US flash PMIs pose downside risk for CAD today
With USDCAD only just recovering from last week’s sell off following poor US economic data, plenty of focus will be paid to US flash PMIs for January. read more
Loonie scans as the best short for exposure to a slowing US economy
The Canadian dollar now scans as one of the standout currencies to short in the scenario of slower US growth given the level of economic integration. read more
Bank of Canada set to be first to hit terminal rates
The tides began to change this week for markets as the soft landing narrative was tested and central bankers doubled down on previous forward guidance. read more
Loonie remains vulnerable to US growth repricing
We still think CAD could come under renewed pressure if markets start to seriously concentrate on slowing growth conditions in the US. read more
Loonie leads losses against the dollar as equities slide on recession fears
The bleak growth outlook that started to get baked into US equities filtered through to the Canadian dollar, as it ultimately led losses amongst the G10. read more
Loonie’s focus returns to broader market conditions with the BoC set to hike 25bp next
Ultimately core inflation pressures remain unpalatably high for the BoC and will provide little scope for a more cautious approach. read more
Canadian CPI keeps BoC on tracks for a final 25bp hike
Today’s inflation data from December highlights that core inflation pressures won’t give the BoC the space to take such a stance as early as next week. read more
December’s CPI data could make next week’s BoC decision more finely poised
It was all about the results of the Bank of Canada’s Q4 surveys yesterday, as the same surveys led the BoC to decelerate their hiking cycle to 50bps. read more
UK labour market keeps the BoE on track for 50bp hike
The ILO measure of employment shows 27k jobs were added in the three months up to November and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%. read more
Bank of Canada’s Q4 survey results suggests a pause could be in store
Overall, the BoS and CSCE surveys highlighted four major themes: a mild and temporary recession is expected in 2023, weighing on wage growth and consumption decisions. While this should improve inflation conditions, the signs are mixed at present. read more
BoC survey results for Q4 may ease pressure for further rate hikes
The BoC is likely to hold rates at a terminal level of 4.25% to offset increasing the financial stability risks associated with even higher rates. read more
Monetary policy to dominate market focus next week, spearheaded by the BoJ
Next week, the focus is to remain on central bank policy actions with the Bank of Japan’s policy announcement on Wednesday as the main event for markets. read more
US CPI provides the fireworks as JPY continues its meteoric rise
Although December’s US CPI data printed bang on expectations for the first time in a long time, the overall release still proved influential for markets. read more
UK economy grows in November, dampening recession concerns
The UK economy posted growth of +0.1% MoM in November, above expectations for renewed contraction of -0.2%. The data follows October’s which saw a 0.5% increase in economic activity. read more
A consensus CPI print still weighs on the dollar
Headline inflation fell from 7.1% to 6.5% YoY in the US in December, owing to a combination of base effects and lower gasoline prices (-1.5% YoY). read more
US inflation data proves pivotal for the dollar as pressure mounts
The main focus today will be US CPI data, given its implications for Fed decision making going into the February meeting. read more
Positioning ahead of US CPI to dominate price action today
This morning, price action in the broad dollar is more bifurcated against the G10 as it sustains losses against the bulk of the G10 currency board. read more
Macro Outlook 2023: The macro climate remains challenging for investors
Following a volatile year defined by rising inflation pressures, the macro environment is unlikely to ease up for investors in 2023. read more
Loonie starts to underperform the G10 against a broadly softer dollar
Gaining against the broad dollar yesterday, but at just 0.44% on the day, the loonie started to underperform the broader G10 market against the greenback. read more
Loonie outperforms G10 last week but ground higher may be harder to make
The Canadian dollar outperformed its G10 counterparts last week as its defensive attributes against a stronger dollar meant losses were limited. read more
Wage growth data will be key for the BoC
The Canadian economy is expected to add just 5k jobs in December as labour market conditions prove extremely tight. read more
Yesterday’s price action in USDCAD is likely to be partially retraced today
Given the 1.4% move in USDCAD was largely unfounded yesterday, we expect a partial retracement to take place today. read more
Loonie is set to complete 0.7% round trip against the dollar
Similar to other G10 currencies, the Canadian dollar has nearly reversed the entirety of yesterday’s 0.7% loss this morning alone as markets continue to try and find a happy medium. read more
Markets start 2023 on a risk-off tone
The loonie broke out of its post-BoC range in the final trading week of 2022, leaving it as one of the better performing G10 currencies against the dollar. read more
Monex’s December 2022 FX Forecasts
Our house view has now shifted tactically neutral on the US dollar in the near term and await a shift in structural factors to trigger a secular decline in the dollar. read more
Monex’s November 2022 FX Forecasts
For now, our outlook on the dollar remains constructive until jobs and inflation data allow the Fed to downshift. read more
Monex’s October 2022 FX Forecasts
Although a high level of bond market volatility is filtering through to FX markets our analysts believe the dollar has a structural basis to grind higher in Q4. read more
Week Ahead: Fire sale in markets may not ease despite thinner data calendar
In the week ahead, the economic calendar dies down slightly, although the start to the week might not be frictionless as traders return with the results of Italy’s latest election. read more
The not so “mini” UK budget
At today’s mini-budget, newly appointed Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng announced a substantial easing of fiscal policy that awoke the bond vigilantes and sent the gilt curve substantially higher, led by the front-end. read more
Week Ahead: Deluge of central bank decisions populate next week’s calendar
In the week ahead, the data calendar is dominated by a torrent of interest rate decisions as nine major central banks prepare to adjust their monetary policy. The main event, however, will be Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision. read more
Monex’s September 2022 FX Forecasts
Our forecasts are more bullish on the dollar as we no longer expect the Fed’s downshift to 50bps in September to be as supportive for risk conditions. read more
Monex’s August 2022 FX Forecasts
DXY index is likely to stay supported, owing to our expectation that the euro-area’s growth outlook will force another run on parity this month. read more
Monex’s July 2022 FX Forecasts
Read Monex's July 2022 FX Forecasts. Find our what our top forecasters expect for currency markets, amid ongoing recession concerns and higher inflation. read more
Spooked by services inflation, the BoE doves fall back in line
The Bank of England voted 6-3 in favour of raising rates by 25bps to 1.25%. The dissenters (Haskell, Mann, and Saunders) all voted to hike rates by 50bps, in order to mitigate against risks that wage growth, firms’ pricing decisions, and inflation expectations fuel persistence in above-target inflation. read more
Loonie under pressure as interest rate differentials narrow
The loonie depreciated on Friday despite a strong job market print that put more pressure on the Bank of Canada to expeditiously raise its policy interest rate. Amid this backdrop, the loonie continues to trade weaker, with losses likely to be extended should North American equity performance deteriorate further after markets cash open. read more
Monex’s June 2022 FX Forecasts
Read Monex's June 2022 FX Forecasts. Find our what our top forecasters expect for currency markets, amid ongoing global growth and inflation concerns. read more
Monex’s May 2022 FX Forecasts
Read Monex's May 2022 FX Forecasts. Find our what our top forecasters expect for currency markets, amid current geopolitical events and uncertain conditions. read more
CAD Outlook: Loonie strength to continue in Q2 on higher oil and BoC support
The Canadian dollar has been highly sensitive to monetary policy actions and price action in global commodities over the course of Q1. Under our base case for commodities and the Bank of Canada in Q2, which envisages two 50bp hikes, we believe gains in the Canadian dollar are likely to continue. However, our flatter forecast for the BoC policy rate in H2 will likely weigh on the loonie at the margin as the pace of Fed tightening overtakes that of the Bank of Canada. read more
Monex’s April 2022 FX Forecasts
While the limited progress in peace talks towards the end of the month blurred the overall dollar dynamics due to a positive boost to regional risk sentiment, we still expect some of the dominant drivers of FX markets from March to remain in play in April. read more
Russia-Ukraine makes central banks think twice about hikes
Risk sentiment chopped and changed throughout the week as all eyes remained on Russia-Ukraine developments. This week monetary policy decisions by the FOMC and BoE are set to show similar levels of caution to the ECB, although both central banks are still expected to hike interest rates by 25bps. read more
Loonie set to limit weekly losses as energy producer stocks rise
Today, at 13:30 GMT, markets will get an update on the status of the Canadian labour market, which by all accounts is expected to show employment rose by 127.5k. The data is likely to confirm expectations of continued policy tightening by the BoC if the data prints in line with expectations. read more
Euro jolts above 1.11 as ECB surprises markets with hawkish move despite war in Ukraine
Today’s European Central Bank decision came as music to the ears of EUR bulls. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine having materially changed the eurozone risk profile in a matter of weeks, the last thing markets expected was for the ECB - which is usually very cautious around its wording - to come out with a definitive announcement of a faster taper to their QE programme. read more
US inflation highest since January 1982, but markets unfazed
US headline inflation today printed at 7.9% YoY for February, up from 7.5% in January, to record the fastest pace of price growth in 40 years. Unlike in previous readings, however, the core reading was much more muted at just 0.5% MoM. read more
Loonie rallies off of market optimism despite sharp drop in oil
The loonie rose half a percent against the greenback on Wednesday, following a market-wide positive shift in risk sentiment. Nevertheless, CAD’s gains lagged many of its peer currencies in the G10 space, owing potentially to the limited sell-off in the loonie during risk-off periods over previous weeks. read more
EUR Update: European currencies battered by latest Russia-Ukraine headlines – is there a floor?
Since the publication of our latest FX forecasts at the beginning of the month, significant developments in the Russia-Ukraine war have put increased pressure on European currencies and equities. Over the last month, the respective currencies of these nations have therefore performed even worse than the euro. The question now is; where will price action stabilise? read more
Monex’s March 2022 FX Forecasts
Geopolitical events are likely to continue driving FX markets in the near-term and with no clear end game as things stand, our forecasts remain under review. Our base case scenario at present is that the pace of geopolitical developments slow in March, but recent events result in a material deterioration in Europe’s macroeconomic backdrop and a still tentative risk environment. read more
EUR Update: Fluid backdrop to keep volatility elevated
The ongoing political risk in Europe means EURUSD is going to remain an easy target within the G10, while rising US Treasury yields the euro’s sensitivity to them will also be a risk. Looking over to H2, an improvement in global growth conditions will be more deterministic for the euro when the monetary outlook and political backdrop has become more stable. read more
USDCAD lower, but loonie lags peers as crude slips
Yesterday’s session saw the Canadian dollar advancing against USD, however it underperformed against other higher beta currencies as falling crude oil prices weighed on the petro-linked currency. Today’s focus will be on a speech by Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem, as the BoC is expected to raise rates in March. read more
Weak Canadian jobs report unlikely to derail BoC tightening
An underwhelming jobs report from Canada coupled with a robust report from the US led to a spike in USDCAD on Friday. Most of the loonie’s losses have been recuperated, however, arguably as the jobs report failed to shift expectations for Bank of Canada policy tightening: read more
Monex’s February 2022 FX Forecasts
Looking ahead, our FX analysts expect the dollar’s strength to be more nuanced in February and for it to be isolated against currencies where rates are likely to lag the rise in US rates. In our forecasts, this largely pertains to EUR, JPY and CNY. read more
BoC underdelivers but it took Fed Powell to force the sell-off in the loonie
Following the BoC’s announcement that rates are set to remain at 0.25%, the loonie reversed all of its daily gains to sit flat despite the Bank teeing up a rate hike at March’s meeting. While the Canadian dollar flirted with trading higher, such that half of its lost gains were recovered, during the press conference, the loonie’s bullish bias was soon to be crushed come the Fed meeting. read more
Loonie slides as commodity currencies lead losses vs USD
Traders exposed to commodity currencies such as CAD will be keeping a close eye on geopolitical developments this week, while CAD traders specifically will be focusing on the BoC this Wednesday and its updated monetary policy report. read more
BRL Outlook: Hawkish BCB to offset depreciation, but political risks may tip the balance
As the year progresses, the Brazilian general elections that are set to be held in October will become increasingly relevant for FX markets given the real’s reputation of weakening in times of political uncertainty and upcoming elections. read more
UK economy finally recovers to above pre-pandemic levels of output
Today's release of UK GDP data for November saw economic activity more than double the consensus estimate with a print of 0.9% MoM. In addition to this, October’s monthly GDP reading was revised upwards from 0.1% to 0.2%. read more
Monex’s 12 key market themes for 2022
Trade ideas tend to have a short shelflife in today's market, so instead of issuing trade suggestions for 2022, we have opted to outline the main themes we think will dominate market price action in the coming 12 months. read more
US inflation near 40-year high, but financial markets are underwhelmed
Despite the US CPI release showed that headline inflation is sitting at its highest point since June 1982, the reaction in the Treasury market was counterintuitive and the dollar sold-off against its G10 peers. read more
US and Canadian labour market reactive
Expectations for today’s US payrolls data were high after multiple sell-side forecasters revised their projections for the net employment figure upwards following the higher ADP and Homebase data from earlier in the week. read more
FOMC meeting minutes strike hawkish tone, but it’s one for the fixed income traders
It seems today's FOMC meeting minutes is one for the fixed income traders as opposed to the FX space. For FX markets, the impact of today’s meeting minutes will likely play out over the course of the week, especially as December’s jobs data is released on Friday following bumper ADP and Homebase indicators earlier in the week. read more
Monex January 2022 FX Forecasts
Looking ahead to 2022, our forecasts have been adjusted to take into account the new sensitivities of central banks to inflation, continuing virus risks and the likely slowdown in growth in Q1. Omicron risk continues to dominate as policymakers conduct a balancing act in order to mitigate the health and economic impacts. read more
Loonie falls after the BoC renews its inflation mandate with a twist
CAD was under pressure for most of yesterday’s session as the fall in oil amid a risk-off market resulted in commodity currencies selling off across the board. The loonie also faced its own challenge as the Bank of Canada released the details of its inflation framework review. read more
Bank of Canada formalises its implicit employment goal in new inflation mandate
While today’s announcement falls in line with what economists were largely expecting and is merely a formalisation of the mandate that has been in practice since the onset of the pandemic, it is being viewed as a marginal dovish development by markets. read more
Omicroncerns clouding the monetary outlook ahead of year end
Next week’s (13th - 17th December) calendar includes nine central banks scheduled to announce their policy decisions, which means FX volatility is likely to pick up. All of which are likely to be clouded by concerns over the impact of the Omicron variant. read more
Loonie traders turn to Gravelle’s economic assessment
For today, the emphasis is on Deputy Gravelle’s economic assessment for further guidance on the economic outlook at 18:00 GMT, especially as yesterday’s meeting came without a press conference. read more
Tight labour market brings focus back to Bank of Canada
The rapid tightening of the labour market in Canada could see the Bank of Canada turn more hawkish in the year to come, especially if wages continue to rise sharply along with inflation. read more
BoC and NBP to keep markets busy ahead of US CPI
Next week’s (6th - 10th November) calendar includes a BoC meeting and an NBP meeting, along with several CPI releases including the US. While the BoC is expected to hold fire on Wednesday, Thursday’s speech from BoC Deputy Governor Gravelle will be heavily watched. read more
Lower growth profile and rising US yields call for downgraded EUR calls
In November, significant downside risks to our November forecasts materialised, with growth concerns and rising US yields pushing EURUSD down from 1.16 to the 1.12 level. Growth concerns arose as some eurozone countries went into light lockdowns. read more
Loonie hits 7-week low as oil markets tumble and US 2-year rises
The Canadian dollar continues to slide against its US counterpart as US equities print in the red, oil markets continue to slump on news of more strategic reserve drawdowns. read more
Projected rate paths are key for NZD and SEK
Next week (22nd - 26th November), focus remains on how markets price central bank tolerances to inflation and global growth conditions as Covid cases begin to rise and force major nations to impose tighter containment measures. read more
Loonie stabilises as oil pressure moderates
A stabilisation in oil markets yesterday helped the loonie stem its losses and stabilise around lows not seen since early October. With crude now sitting just shy of $80 per barrel again, the Canadian dollar might start retracing recent losses. read more
UK CPI, labour market data keep BoE on track for December hike
UK CPI massively outstripped expectations to print at its highest 12-month rate since December 2011, and the month-on-month change saw the pace of price increases reach a high not seen since April 1993. While today’s data exceeded the consensus estimate from economists, it is broadly in line with the BoE’s projections, which envisage CPI peaking at 5% in April 2022 when Ofgem adjusts its price cap again. read more
Loonie recovers from Friday’s lows despite lower oil prices
The loonie is crawling back against the dollar after Friday’s 1-month high in USDCAD, as moves in Treasury markets meant the dollar is trading softer this morning. The rally in CAD comes despite crude oil prices having fallen slightly after US President Joe Biden faced even more calls to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in an attempt to tackle the elevated gas prices and push back against inflation expectations. read more
US CPI keeps markets volatile following the central bank bonanza
Next week (15th - 19th November), CPI remains top of mind as a number of nations are set to release reports highlighting above target price growth, however, we believe these releases will have less of an impact on broader markets relative to the US release this week. Additionally, central banks from South Africa and Turkey are expected to deliver fresh rate decisions. read more
Loonie shaken by strong US CPI print and lower crude prices
No one was safe from the broad USD rally in yesterday’s market following the CPI release. USDCAD rallied close to 0.5% as the CPI release reinforced expectations of earlier policy tightening by the Fed, while on the loonie’s side, softer crude oil prices following the rising dollar undermined the petro-linked currency further. read more
US inflation tracks back above 6%, placing pressure on transitory messaging
With expectations for October’s CPI print to rise from 5.4% to 5.9% YoY already in play, today’s inflation release had to be big to disrupt markets beyond what had already been priced into the Treasury curve and in the FX space during the morning session. read more
Loonie climbs on broad USD weakness, but tight ranges form again
The loonie was no exception to the USD weakness story yesterday and climbed some 0.15% against the greenback as crude oil prices rose, while Bank of Canada Governor Macklem hit the media to reiterate his view on inflation. Macklem stated the surging inflation is transitory but not short-lived, and reassured the BoC would keep inflation under control. read more
Loonie continues to weather broad US dollar strength as BoC set to remain hawkish
The Canadian dollar continues to trade in a relatively subdued manner despite the broad bounce in the US dollar last week. Expectations of the Bank of Canada remaining one of the hawkish outliers in the G10 central bank space, which is generally pushing back market expectations, is helping support the loonie. read more
ECB and Fed speakers in scope after dovish retaliation
Next week (8th - 12th November), despite the absence of any major central bank meetings, the focus will remain on monetary policy pricing, especially as the Fed’s media blackout period ends. Notable speeches from Chicago Fed Evans and San Francisco’s Daly will be in scope for US rate traders, while opening remarks from the ECB’s Chief Economist Lane will be top of mind for euro money markets. read more
Strong payrolls keep US front-end yields firm, boosting the dollar
Amid the dovish pushback from G10 central banks this week and the broad rally in bond markets, front-end US Treasury yields have remained fairly resilient. This theme was extended in early trading today, helping the dollar gain ground ahead of October’s payroll data. While Canada’s net employment change undershot expectations by 10.4k with a print of 31.2k, today's LFS largely met our expectations. read more
Labour force survey likely to confirm the BoC’s hawkish position
With the level of employment in Canada now back to pre-pandemic levels, and the sectoral damage from lockdown limited on an employment basis, net employment gains are likely to slow. Emphasis will therefore be on signs of a tight labour market appearing in underlying metrics such as wage growth and average hours worked. read more
Bank of England bats back market expectations, sends sterling plummeting
The Bank of England today shocked markets by voting 7-2 to hold rates at 0.1% while voting 6-3 to maintain the current stock of assets at £875bn. While we largely expected the Bank to hit back against aggressive market pricing of rate hikes by holding rates, we anticipated a tighter split in the vote in order to signal to markets that tighter policy was imminent at December’s meeting. read more
Markets turn a blind eye to Fed and ECB guidance, loonie off the lows from USD weakness
After touching its lowest point since October 13th, the loonie reversed losses to close the day out on a stronger footing yesterday after the Federal Reserve underdelivered on market expectations and broad US dollar weakness rang through FX markets. Today will be another quiet session for loonie traders today ahead of Friday’s labour market data. read more
Time to taper, but that is all from the Fed for now
The Federal Reserve largely met the market consensus today by announcing plans to taper its QE programme by a maximum of $15bn per month until year-end. Powell opened the door further to give policymakers greater optionality going forward. read more
Loonie trades in tight ranges ahead of the Fed
The Federal Reserve could force USDCAD to breakout to the upside given the right mix of policy tightening and commentary from Chair Powell, however, the possibility of the Fed under delivering on a hawkish message also remains a viable risk. read more
The Canadian dollar continues to grind out gains ahead of Friday’s data
This morning, the Canadian dollar is seeing more notable losses against the US dollar compared to other G10 currencies, but this is likely a retracement from yesterday’s moves. Today’s calendar is sparse for Canada, with building permits being the only data release of note at 12:30 GMT ahead of the crucial FOMC meeting. read more
Loonie struggles to continue rally to 1.22, but labour market data could change this
The loonie remains trading near recent highs, but broad USD buying towards month-end reversed all of last week’s gains. With oil markets looking as if they’ve stalled just north of the $80 mark recently, and equity markets pivoting on whether they post marginal gains, the loonie’s tailwinds have seemingly weakened. read more
The central bank magic trick: turning a dove into a hawk in plain sight
Price action in G10 FX markets this week has been driven predominantly by pricing in bond markets and the actions of central banks. This dynamic is set to continue next week (1st - 5th November) as the battle against rising inflation migrates from the Bank of Canada and the ECB to the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of England. read more
Loonie looks to August GDP data to assess economic performance in Q3 vs the US
Today, loonie traders will be keeping a close eye on August’s GDP data at 13:30 BST following the slip in US growth in Q3 and the Bank of Canada’s downgrade to 2021 GDP on Wednesday. The data is expected to show the economy expanded by 0.7% MoM in August, following a tentative start to the third quarter when July’s data printed at -0.1%. read more
ECB meeting: Inflation, inflation, inflation
Despite the suppressed expectations, the ECB managed to dull the event down even further by adjusting their opening statement such that it indicates the decision would not include an assessment of the economic outlook. The lack of excitement was visible across markets, as EURUSD remained unfazed after the release of the initial rate statement. read more
Not to be left out, the BoC joins the leading pack of hawks
Yesterday, all eyes switched firmly to the Bank of Canada as the central bank not only finalised its QE programme by entering the reinvestment stage but also brought forward its expectation of when the output gap would close from H2 2022 to “the middle quarters of next year”. read more
Bank of Canada ends QE and emboldens hawkish market pricing
The Bank of Canada today announced that it would taper its QE programme by a further C$1bn a week, therefore entering the reinvestment stage, while it also brought forward its forecast for the output gap closing from H2 2022 to “the middle quarters” of next year. read more
UK budget: Sunak saves part of the fiscal windfall with 2024 election in mind
Today’s long awaited Autumn budget was a damp squib for FX markets given that the majority of the fiscal pledges were announced in advance of the formal unveiling. The net impact of today’s budget is lower bond issuance going forward, with the OBR now projecting £154bn less in borrowing over the following 5-years. read more
Loonie’s tight ranges set to be broken by key BoC meeting
The loonies’ tight ranges are likely to be broken today as the Bank of Canada updates investors with its latest policy decision and economic outlook. While we expect larger moves in USDCAD relative to other trading sessions this week, the loonies’ slight depreciation trend may not reverse should the Bank not accompany the end to their QE programme with a more hawkish outlook for rate hikes. read more
Loonie volatility is limited ahead of the Bank of Canada meeting
The Canadian dollar struggled to hold onto the oil rally yesterday as it slipped at the margin against the US dollar. With very little in the way of economic data today, and the Bank of Canada scheduled tomorrow, today’s session is likely to be the calm before the storm. read more
This week’s BoC meeting could give loonie rally fresh legs
The Canadian dollar starts this week on the front foot as oil markets climb to $85.50 per barrel, but the loonie remains far from last week’s highs. A hawkish Bank of Canada meeting may tip the balance in favour of the loonie, although a further taper of the QE programme to the reinvestment level of C$1bn a week is unlikely to be marked as hawkish. read more
Central banks to take centre stage ahead of crucial GDP readings
A flurry of central bank meetings take will place across the globe next week (25th - 29th October), while Q3 GDP prints from the US and eurozone will take centre stage on Friday. Several countries will also release inflation readings. Among the central bank meetings are the Bank of Canada, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank - in order of importance. read more
Loonie weakens on oil retreating from multi-years high
With both Brent crude and WTI taking a leg lower yesterday however, while the market mood was not supporting the loonie either, USDCAD gained around half a percentage point on the day. Some of those gains have been pared back this morning, but looking at the remainder of the day any changes in FX direction should come from broader macro flow given the lack of noteworthy data releases from Canada. read more
USDCAD falls to lowest level since June following upbeat market mood
The Canadian dollar continued its climb against the dollar yesterday to reach new highs not seen since July as crude oil prices ticked up higher and risk sentiment remained supportive, while this morning, the loonie climbed up further to June levels. read more
CAD continues to find support in oil rally and weaker USD
Today’s focus turns to CPI inflation from Canada at 13:30 BST, which will be viewed in light of next week’s policy decision. Expectations for the YoY print are set at 4.3%, slightly higher than August’s 4.1% reading, while the MoM figure is expected to remain unchanged compared to last month, non-seasonally adjusted. read more
Loonie shielded by robust oil prices while USD weakens
The loonie was shielded by strong oil prices in yesterday’s session and managed to withstand pressure from the greenback, while the drop in oil prices during the latter part of yesterday’s session did little to dent the loonie as the US dollar weakened simultaneously and crude oil prices remain significantly high in broader terms. read more
EUR Update: Euro weighed down by near-term factors, medium-term outlook rosier
While September’s losses were significant at over 2%, we expect the pressure on the euro to ease over the coming months as supply pressures mitigate, which should help to cool inflation and aid growth conditions. We expect the combination of these developments to be supportive for EURUSD. read more
CAD losses limited by strong oil prices despite cautious market mood
At 15:30 EDT today, the Bank of Canada releases its Q3 Business Outlook ahead of the October 27 policy meeting which comes with fresh projections. Markets will take the survey as an important indicator of what to expect for next week’s meeting. read more
Economic activity and inflation data put stagflation fears to the test
Next week (18th - 22nd October), the data calendar revolves around October’s preliminary PMI prints, while China’s Q3 GDP data also scans as one of the more interesting releases. The focus on activity data is likely to be heightened given growth concerns over previous weeks and the impact higher input costs are having. This is especially the case in the eurozone, UK, and China, where rising energy costs are the most pronounced. read more
USD Update: Defiant dollar in Q4
Amid the global backdrop of lower growth and higher inflation, the dollar is likely to stay well bid in Q4. However, our latest forecasts now see the DXY index trading a percentage point lower than current spot levels and back towards highs of its previous trading range as the aggressive repricing in FX markets overextended in early October given our views on back-end US rates this year. read more
Big miss in ZEW fails to dent EURUSD as G10 yields moderate
Today’s miss in the German ZEW data highlights how German activity is struggling to expand at the start of Q4 as current conditions are no longer improving. The current situation gauge tumbled from 31.9 in September to 21.6 in October, well below expectations of 28.5. EURUSD escaped the lack of optimism spilling into FX markets despite the big miss in today’s ZEW data, as at the same time yields in G10 markets have been moderating today after yesterday’s dramatic climb higher. read more
Macro backdrop of slower growth and rising inflation set to dominate FX markets
Next week (11th - 15th October), with a limited data calendar, markets are likely to continue focusing on the inflation backdrop and the impact it will have on growth conditions. We take a brief look at the environment in Europe this week and what it means for ECB and BoE pricing. read more
Diverging labour reports play out in North America
It was our expectation that today’s Canadian and US labour market reports would show a stark divergence, not only in net employment but also in underlying metrics. This ultimately played out, with the US jobs market adding 194k jobs in September compared with expectations of a 500k increase, while Canada added 157.1k jobs relative to expectations of just a 60k net employment gain. read more
Grappling with the stagflationary backdrop
Next week (27th September - 1st October), the focus shifts from policy announcements to individual central bankers. The RBA, RBNZ and NBP will have to announce their policy decisions given the latest downturn in the global economic outlook, while on the data front, US and Canadian labour market data stands out. read more
From policy announcements to central bank speakers
Next week (27th September - 1st October), the focus quickly shifts from policy announcements to individual central bankers as a swathe of speakers fill the economic calendar, largely due to the ECB’s forum on central banking taking place between the 28th and 29th of September. Rather than being in Sintra (Portugal) as has been customary, the event will take place online. read more
Bank of England delivers hawkish surprise, even by the markets standard
The Bank of England today voted unanimously to keep the Bank Rate at 0.1%, while members voted 7-2 in favour of continuing with its existing QE programme. The shift in the QE vote, from 7-1 to 7-2 due to Ramsden joining Saunders in dissenting, set the tone for what was to be a hawkish set of meeting minutes despite their Q3 GDP projection being downgraded by around a percentage point. read more
Fed signals faster tapering in 2023 but under-delivers on next year’s dot plot
For those looking for an explosive Fed meeting, they may have initially been disappointed by the alterations in the dot plot. However, Powell’s comments meant volatility wasn’t absent in the FX space, with the likes of EURUSD swinging within a 0.55% range and USDJPY climbing over half a per cent higher on the day. read more
Central bank bonanza
The 20th - 24th September is packed with central bank meetings, with the FOMC’s decision on Wednesday eyed as the most important economic event by markets. On top of that, the Bank of England is set to release their latest policy decision, while the Norges Bank is expected to be the first G10 central bank to raise rates since the pandemic. read more
Inflation to sit top of mind next week
Next week’s data calendar focuses heavily on inflation data in major developed market economies, while core CPI readings from Poland and inflation expectations data in Turkey will be viewed amid historically high CPI readings. read more
Central banks set to stretch hawkish wings
Next week, price action in US fixed income markets will continue to garner a lot of market attention, while increasingly hawkish central bank developments will also be in scope. Of note is the Reserve Bank of Australia, who we expect to press on with tapering their QE programme, the Bank of Russia who are expected to hike by 50bps, the National Bank of Poland who will battle with record high inflation, and the European Central Bank. read more
Focus shifts from Jackson Hole to US jobs data
In the week beginning Monday 30th August, the market’s emphasis shifts to monitoring the severity of the latest Covid-19 waves driven by the delta variant, the economic impact they are having via timely data points, and August’s Nonfarm Payrolls data next week. Fixed income and money markets will be taking their cues from the latest payroll data in order to price expectations of September’s Fed meeting. read more
Jackson Hole arrives after a volatile week for macro conditions
With a tentative macroeconomic backdrop, next week’s data is likely to have a larger market impact than usual, especially with the quantity of preliminary PMI releases for August. The Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium should provide markets with a bit more clarity as to its tapering timeline. read more
One week closer to Jackson Hole
Markets are likely to settle somewhat as they await the headlines from the Jackson Hole symposium on August 27th. Next week’s calendar suggests there may be pockets of isolated volatility with policy decisions from both the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Norges Bank, while the Reserve Bank of Australia and Federal Reserve both publish meeting minutes. read more
To hike or not to hike, that is the question
Markets this week have largely focused on underlying growth conditions, FOMC speakers and Friday’s labour market data, with US bond markets sending conflicting signals to FX traders. Next week (9th – 13th August), the key pieces of data centre around rate decisions from Banxico and the CBRT, both of which have reasons to hike rates due to rising inflation but also have grounds to stay pat. read more
Canadian employment underperforms, but it isn’t all bad
July’s employment data out of Canada saw the economy add 94,000 jobs. While on the surface, the slip looks seismic, the nature of the job additions and the stage in which the Canadian labour market recovery is at means the underperformance of the net employment data isn’t as concerning as the headline suggests. read more
Bank of England in focus after inflation overshoots and labour market progress
Next week, the focus will be on the Bank of England to announce its policy decision and comment on the recent inflation overshoots and recovery in the labour market. read more
Q2 GDP data and the Fed are in focus amid a global third wave
Markets will pay close attention to commentary by Chair Powell and the Fed’s assessment of current conditions. A first glance at economic performance in advanced economies in Q2 is also pinned for the week, although growing fears over the coming months might cloud the impact positive GDP figures have on markets. read more
ECB guidance to take centre stage next week, CBR set to hike rates
The ECB takes centre stage next week, with a revamped strategy review setting the tone for a persistently more dovish course of action in the months to come, while the CBR is set to hike rates further amid a light data calendar. read more
Central banks in focus next week after Fed’s hawkish shift
Next week will be critical to assessing the way forward as a fresh batch of inflation data is released and several central banks face the press cameras. On the side, political developments might add excitement to markets. read more
Monetary policy in scope with FOMC minutes and ECB strategy review
This week (5th - 9th July), the meeting minutes from the Fed’s June meeting will be scoured by market participants as they try to gain a clearer view on future US interest rates, and the ECB’s Governing Council is set to also meet next week in Frankfurt to discuss the ongoing policy review. read more
First Nonfarm Payrolls since Fed may cause significant volatility
Last week, volatility in FX markets was largely driven by the hawkish shift by the FOMC, as broad dollar moves drove price action in G10 currency pairs. This week, the focus remains largely on the US, with the release of the first Nonfarm Payrolls report since last week’s Fed meeting. read more
Markets to tune into FOMC speakers after the Fed’s hawkish shift
The focus next week will now be on US data and whether that can live up to the expectations set by the Federal Reserve, while a few FOMC speakers will provide markets with a bit more clarity on their position on the economic outlook. read more
A week of central bank decisions but the Fed will draw most of the focus
The Federal Reserve, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, and the Central Bank of Brazil are likely to be the most exciting on this week's agenda. Over the weekend, events in the UK will focussed on the government’s decision to stick to its June 21st reopening plan as cases of the delta variant rise. read more
It is all about PEPP
Looking ahead, central banks will come back to the fore next week with the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, and the Bank of Russia releasing their latest policy decisions. The ECB is likely to steal the show as speculation over the next PEPP decision rises. read more
All eyes on US and Canada labour market data after underwhelming April reports
Next week (31st - 4th June), the focus turns to labour market data from the US and Canada after April’s underwhelming reports. Also on the agenda are policy decisions from the RBA and Reserve Bank of India and China’s official manufacturing PMI. read more
Limited top-tier economic data puts USD dynamics further into focus
Next week (24th - 28th May), the economic calendar is light on major market-moving events. US PCE inflation stands out as the most high profile data point on the calendar along with the latest RBNZ rate decision, while the focus will remain on central bank speakers. read more
European vaccine rollout takes centre stage while developing countries struggle with a dire Covid situation
We continue to track the evolution of the vaccine rollout in major economies, as a timely gauge of potential reopening and global economic recovery. In this edition, we highlight the European efforts to catch up with front-runners like the UK and US, while stressing the dire picture in some emerging markets. read more
A post Brexit Britain leaves sterling at the mercy of Covid-19 developments
The stale nature of Brexit developments over the course of Q4 means it has been some time since our last GDP outlook. In the latter stage of 2020, despite Covid-19 developments, the pound continued to trade based off no-deal Brexit risk as the clock wound down and negotiations stalled. read more
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With stability in the #bankingsector, the #dollar has depreciated and #interestrate expectations have been rebuilt, but that could all flip on a dime. The catalyst today could be #Senate testimony at 15:00 BST. https://loom.ly/C9OO0ZQ
#Financialstability concerns are likely to sit front of mind again for #financialmarkets next week as Friday sees confidence waver again. Here's a look at our latest Week Ahead: https://loom.ly/khWZ_ig
#Bankingstocks and corporate #realestate performance will be in scope this week for #FXmarkets as the data calendar dries up and #centralbank policymakers continue to tread water. https://loom.ly/3PG_gzY
We warned yesterday the #riskrally on the back of a more dovish #Fed was subject to #financialstability. With US bank stocks nosediving again, financials under pressure in the Asian and early European session today, #USdollar is finding tactical support: https://loom.ly/mn7ZiR4
The #BankofEngland raised #interestrates by 25bps to 4.25% in one final push today, which according to our FX analysts at Monex, will likely be their terminal rate. Read our full commentary on today's policy decision and #GBP here: https://loom.ly/saXvL4o