Login
Energy costs remain top of mind for currency markets
The week ahead sees a fuller roster of data releases for traders to keep an eye on, including March CPI reports from Canada, the UK, and Japan. read more
Starmer woes weigh on sterling (again)
The dollar steadied after early gains on Thursday, with the DXY hovering around 98.3 as markets lacked fresh catalysts. read more
The dollar softens at the margin on renewed diplomacy hopes
The US dollar retreated as investors looked past the naval blockade of Iranian ports, focusing instead on hopes of renewed diplomacy. read more
Markets stabilise as traders reassess Middle East risks
FX markets stabilise as traders reassess Middle East risks, with softer oil prices and firmer risk appetite weighing on the dollar. read more
Blockade fears jolt markets, but backchannel talks steady nerves
Safe-haven flows surged early on Monday after US–Iran talks in Islamabad collapsed over the weekend, prompting US threats to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. read more
US-Iran negotiations break down, boosting the dollar
Dollar strength rebounded over the weekend as Middle East tensions outweighed softer March inflation data. read more
A Middle East ceasefire cools the dollar
After over a month of conflict in the Middle East, the week just gone finally saw a ceasefire between the US and Iran. Admittedly, this break in hostilities looks shaky, and only a two-week pause has been agreed to as of now. Still, this creates the space for negotiations which are expected to take place in the coming weeks, offering markets hope that normality might soon return to global energy supply. That prospect has helped to push oil prices back below $100 per barrel already, with the dollar following energy costs lower over recent days. The DXY is trading in the mid-98s as of writing, having slipped more than 1.5% since April 3rd. Yet despite this cooling in tensions, the evolution of talks will likely continue to preoccupy markets in the week ahead. To say that the data calendar is sparse, would be generous. Australian jobs data tops the docket, with few other G10 releases of note scheduled. A busier roster of central bank speak is due, but any market relevant commentary is still likely to be centred on the risks posed by Middle East hostilities. The one other event of note comes from Hungary, with a parliamentary election taking place on Sunday April 12th. Opinion polling points to an opposition victory, which if realised, would bring to and end Viktor Orban’s 16 years in office – with potential implications extending beyond Hungary to the wider European Union. You can read the Week Ahead in full here: DOWNLOAD THE FULL REPORT Authors: Nick Rees, Head of Macro Research Barry van der Laan, Senior FX Market Strategist Research Support: Maya Barber Disclaimer This information has been prepared by Monex International Markets plc, part of Monex S.A.P.I. de C.V. (“Monex”). The material is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is, or should be considered to be, financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All entities in the “Monex” group of companies are regulated for different products and services within the jurisdictions in which they operate. Details of the different entities can be found here. Details of the respective entities' regulated status and available products and services can then be found on the relevant links to the individual jurisdictions' website. read more
US prices softer than expected in March
The US March inflation report has been eagerly awaited by traders looking to gauge the impact of recent Middle East hostilities. read more
US CPI to jump on higher energy costs
A fragile two‑week ceasefire between the United States and Iran kept FX markets on edge yesterday. read more
A shaky ceasefire stalls the dollar’s fall
A two‑week ceasefire agreed between Washington and Tehran triggered a dramatic reversal in FX markets on Wednesday. read more
Ceasefire, for now
The greenback began Tuesday firmer as lingering uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz kept safe‑haven demand elevated. read more
Further Trump threats underpin dollar resilience
The dollar rebounded on Monday, closing just above 100 on the DXY as markets weighed Washington’s geopolitical signals. read more
Middle East concerns to remain top of mind
Presidential commentary on the war continues to drive wild swings in energy costs, with spillovers still the primary catalyst for FX markets. read more
Fiery rhetoric from Trump dispels ceasefire hopes
The greenback traded in a range on Wednesday as markets swung between de‑escalation hopes and renewed war fears, reigniting risk sentiment. read more
Monex’s April 2026 FX Forecasts
Looking ahead, the evolution of tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran will likely be the key FX catalyst in April too. read more
Ceasefire risks see the dollar paring gains
The US dollar’s safe-haven rally took a breather yesterday as quarter-end rebalancing and softer US data prompted modest profit-taking. read more
The dollar hits mid-2025 highs
The US dollar remained firmly bid yesterday, extending last week’s safe-haven rally amid persistent geopolitical tensions. read more
Middle East concern keeps the dollar supported into month-end
The US dollar extended its rally at the end of last week as persistent risk-off sentiment kept the buck in high demand. read more
Further dollar gains on Middle East concerns
The week ahead brings with it some of the first hard data indicators for March, including eurozone and Switzerland preliminary CPI and US jobs for March. read more
The dollar continues to advance with no end in sight to Middle East fighting
The dollar regained momentum on Thursday as risk‑off sentiment resurfaced. FX markets focus on oil, yields and Fed rhetoric. read more
The dollar rallies on rate hike pushback
The dollar rallies on rate hike pushback as central bank signals soften across major economies, pressuring EUR, GBP and CAD while markets focus on Fed guidance and energy-driven inflation risks. read more
The dollar struggles for direction amidst Middle East uncertainty
The US dollar steadied on Tuesday after Monday’s relief rally saw the DXY index fall below 100, amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. read more
March PMIs for the UK and eurozone point to growing Middle East headwinds
A stagflationary theme emerged across European PMI prints in March, seeing slowing growth and rising inflation pressures. read more
The dollar drops on Middle East off-ramp signals
Monday saw the dollar drop back sharply, sparked by Trump’s delay on Iran strikes, as markets react to Middle East tensions, oil volatility and Fed outlook. read more
All eyes on Trump’s latest deadline
The dollar regained some ground on Friday after Thursday’s retreat. FX markets remain driven by geopolitical tensions and oil prices. read more
Tightening up in tone
The week ahead, in contrast to the previous, looks a little quieter, at least in terms of scheduled events. read more
Hawkish central banks surprise currency markets
The dollar started Thursday on a strong footing as traders digested the Fed’s rate decision, before hawkish signals from the ECB and BoE reshaped FX markets. read more
ECB holds as Middle East shock sharpens stagflation trade-off
The ECB left all three key rates unchanged on Thursday — deposit facility at 2.00%, main refinancing at 2.15%, marginal lending at 2.40%. read more
The BoE catches markets by surprise
The MPC left Bank Rate unchanged following the March policy meeting, matching consensus expectations and our own house call. read more
Riksbank holds, but less comfortably dovish
The Riksbank left the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% on Wednesday, in line with expectations, but the accompanying message was less dovish than before. read more
SNB ups the ante on franc appreciation
A decision from the SNB to leave rates untouched at 0.0% should have surprised no one this month. read more
A hawkish Fed keeps the dollar in control
Wednesday saw the US dollar extending its recent gains, helped by a widely expected hold in interest rates from the Fed. A hawkish tone from Chair Powell and ongoing Middle East tensions continue to support the dollar. read more
Little change at the Fed, yet
The FOMC left the range of the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75% as expected following the conclusion of their March meeting. read more
BoC pushes back on hiking bets
The BoC held rates at 2.25% following the March policy meeting, matching consensus expectations and our own house call. read more
Fed set to deliver judgment on Middle East inflation risks
Tuesday’s session saw the dollar give back further ground. Markets focus on Middle East conflict, oil‑driven inflation risks and the FOMC decision, with the Fed expected to hold rates while guidance and Chair Powell’s tone shape the near‑term USD outlook. read more
Canadian CPI softer under the surface
Canada’s February CPI report offered little to suggest that the Governing Council should be worried by domestic inflation dynamics. read more
Holding on through a busy week
The week coming up should see a test of whether market expectations match rate setters, with eight G10 central banks due to deliver policy announcements. read more
US CPI meets expectations in February
In contrast to recent developments in the Middle East, February’s US CPI report contained no major surprises. read more
Markets start to find some calm
Markets start to find some calm as the dollar stabilises and energy prices ease, with markets focused on US CPI data and its potential impact on sentiment. read more
An oil shock overshadows macro-fundamentals
With oil prices threatening $120 per barrel as early trading got underway, expectations for several central banks have flipped from pricing cuts to hikes. read more
Middle East tensions set the tone
The beginning of March sees an uptick in the number of data releases, but the risk of conflict looks set to dictate market tone initially. read more
Monex’s March 2026 FX Forecasts
An uptick in FX volatility looks likely over the coming month, given a busier roster of catalysts coming up in the month ahead. read more
Geopolitics and trade overshadow a quiet data calendar
In the coming week, a backup plan for tariffs, and possible US military action in the Middle East, are likely to be the key market drivers. read more
Stronger PMIs shift focus from growth gap to rate path
February’s flash PMIs surprised modestly to the upside in both the eurozone and the UK, but the mix matters more than the headline. read more
Canadian inflation softens to begin 2026
The start of 2026 saw a slowdown for Canadian price growth according to January CPI figures, prompting a further reassessment of BoC rate expectations. read more
A stabilising dollar backdrop
Looking ahead, we expect attention to land on sterling in the coming week, assisted by a US public holiday on Monday. read more
US inflation broadly meets expectations in January
January inflation data has done little to shift Fed rate cut pricing, or the dollar, with this latest release largely matching market expectations. read more
Swiss CPI reinforces SNB’s “high bar” for negative rates
Swiss January CPI delivered limited relief rather than a policy shock: 0.1% YoY in line with consensus, while the monthly print undershot slightly. read more
US payrolls post a strong start to the year
January non-farm payroll figures surprised notably to the upside, indicating 130k job gains in the first month of 2026. read more
Political risk sets the tone
The coming week will see a continuation of these themes, likely eclipsing delayed US jobs data and January CPI readings. read more
ECB on hold at 2.00% as confidence outweighs urgency
As expected, the ECB left policy rates unchanged, reaffirming confidence that inflation will stabilise at 2% over the medium term. read more
A dovish MPC should further weigh on sterling
While no change in Bank Rate was widely expected, the Bank of England still managed to deliver some dovish hints relative to market pricing. read more
Monex’s February 2026 FX Forecasts
Monex’s February 2026 FX Forecasts provide currency outlooks and key drivers shaping G10 FX markets in the month ahead. read more
Short-term conditions favour a dollar recovery
Markets brace for central bank decisions, US jobs data and fresh signals on Fed leadership as FX volatility picks up. read more
Back on hold at the Fed
The target range for the federal funds rate remains unchanged at 3.50-3.75% following the Fed’s January meeting, matching consensus expectations. read more
A mark-to-market BoC meeting
The BoC has, as expected, left rates unchanged at 2.25% following the January policy meeting. read more
A January rate decision should resurrect Fed-White House tensions
A softer US dollar and a busy central bank calendar put the BoC and Canadian dollar in focus in the week ahead. read more
UK and eurozone more similar than headline PMIs suggest
January PMIs largely matched expectations for the eurozone, while surprising notably to the upside in the UK. read more
A mixed Canadian CPI release offers few short-term loonie implications
December CPI readings left the loonie treading water, with a headline beat offset by a small miss on measures of underlying inflation. read more
A core CPI miss fails to spark much dollar response
US price growth undershot expectations in December, with the core CPI rising 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY. Markets had expected to see core inflation of 0.3%. read more
A mixed bag of jobs data leaves a muted dollar impact
The headline December US payrolls number undershot expectations, showing 50k job additions against consensus predictions for a 70k gain. read more
Monex Macro Outlook 2026
2025 was marked by political shocks and trade tensions, yet FX volatility fell to decade lows. Our 2026 outlook explores what comes next. read more
ECB inflation path firms as growth outlook improves
The ECB left policy rates unchanged, maintaining a steady-hand approach as inflation remains broadly consistent with the 2% target over the medium term. read more
A sharp drop in US inflation looks suspicious
Markets have largely ignored a downside miss for the November US CPI; we suspect due to data quality concerns. read more
BoE details more dovish than headlines suggest
The MPC voted to cut rates by 25bps at the December policy meeting, a decision that sees Bank Rate fall to 3.75%, matching consensus expectations. read more
Rising unemployment dovish for the Fed, but not alarming yet
The November jobs report should skew dovish for the Fed, even with an upside payrolls beat in hand, and some notable caveats. read more
PMI: Euro holds up as UK PMI bounce masks fragility
December flash PMIs underline a clear divergence between the euro area and the UK. read more
A modest CPI undershoot shouldn’t alter much
An undershoot across the most closely watched measures of Canadian inflation might appear dovish for the BoC on first viewing. read more
Dovish Christmas decorations at the Fed
The FOMC trimmed policy by 25bps for the third consecutive meeting, a decision that will see the range of the federal funds rate end 2025 at 3.50-3.75%. read more
A nuanced BoC decision keeps the loonie contained
The Bank of Canada held the policy rate at 2.25% to close out 2025, as expected. read more
A monster upside jobs beat kills rate cut odds
Based on headline numbers alone, there might actually be an argument for the BoC reversing course and hiking rates after seeing the November jobs report. read more
Monex’s December 2025 FX Forecasts
FX markets stayed calm in November as fiscal decisions dominated. With few catalysts ahead of year-end, December is set for subdued G10 currency moves. read more
More tax, more spending, more borrowing in the Budget
The UK Chancellor appears to have escaped the Autumn Budget unscathed, at least initially. read more
UK momentum breaks as eurozone stabilises
With the publication of November’s flash Purchasing Managers Indices, any perceived UK growth advantage has disappeared in a single set of data releases. read more
Don’t rule out a December Fed cut
The long-delayed September payrolls report has finally been released, showing 119k job gains, some distance more than the 51k predicted by economists. read more
Canadian inflation broadly matches expectations
October CPI data should do little to prompt action from the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council next month, or at any meeting in the foreseeable future. read more
UK Budget Preview
The UK Budget, scheduled for November 26th, remains the major risk event on the horizon for sterling. read more
USD Update
The US government shutdown is set to end, clearing the path for delayed data that could guide the Fed’s December decision and weigh mildly on the dollar. read more
Budget risks loom over the BoE
The MPC voted 5-4 to leave Bank Rate unchanged at the November policy meeting, matching our pre-decision call. read more
Monex’s November 2025 FX Forecasts
Ongoing US government uncertainty points to a weaker greenback in November. Our November FX forecasts outline potential impacts on G10 currencies. read more
ECB will do what is needed to stay in a good place
The European Central Bank held its deposit rate steady at 2.00% in Florence, with President Lagarde reiterating that policy remains “in a good place.” read more
Not quite a non-event at the Fed
The FOMC reduced the range of the Federal Funds rate by 25bps following the October policy meeting, matching our pre-announcement call. read more
BoC (probably) done cutting
Never say never, but we think the BoC’s latest policy decision, which saw the Governing Council lower rates by 25bps. read more
US CPI misses expectations, firming up Fed rate cut bets
The long-awaited, and long delayed, September US CPI report indicated that prices rose by 3.0% YoY, 0.1% faster than August. read more
Stronger German services drive growth despite French drag
Eurozone private-sector activity strengthened in October, with the flash composite PMI rising to 52.2 from 51.2, the strongest expansion since May 2024. read more
EURCHF Outlook: SNB’s zero-rate floor to anchor the franc
Following elevated global risk aversion year-to-date, CHF has appreciated markedly against both EUR and USD. read more
UK inflation miss validates December cut call
September’s UK CPI release undershot expectations, reinforcing our base case for a Bank of England rate cut in December. read more
Canadian CPI jumps, leaving a BoC hold underpriced
Ahead of StatsCan’s September CPI release, we warned that market expectations for a BoC rate cut this month were scanning as much too aggressive. read more
Finally, some relief for the loonie
The Canadian labour market rebounded unexpectedly in September, adding 60k jobs against a consensus prediction of only 5k gains. read more
Inflation slowdown confirms Riksbank’s long pause
Sweden’s September flash CPIF fell to 3.1% YoY from 3.2% in August, marginally below expectations and fully consistent with the Riksbank’s forecast of 3.0%. read more
Monex’s October 2025 FX Forecasts
Our Monex analysts are leaving their longer-run projections unchanged for October, even as they make some small short-term tweaks. read more
Swiss CPI miss to keep the SNB nervous
Swiss CPI held at just 0.2% YoY in September, below consensus expectations and still firmly beneath the SNB’s target range. read more
Polish disinflation resumes glide path, but policy constrained by fiscal fog
Poland's September flash CPI held steady at 2.9% YoY, with the monthly reading flat at 0.0%, and lower food and fuel prices offsetting energy costs. read more
The SNB holds again
The SNB’s policy rate remains unchanged at 0% following the September Governing Board meeting, matching broad sell-side consensus too. read more
No surprises from the BoE
The MPC left Bank Rate unchanged at 4.00% at the September policy meeting, matching our own house call, and the unanimous view of other sell-side desks. read more
A hawkish Norges Bank shift sharply curtails future easing risks
The Norges Bank cut rates by 25bps following the September policy meeting, taking deposit rates to 4.0%, matching our pre-announcement call. read more
The first of many more to come?
The FOMC reduced rates by 25bps at the September policy meeting, leaving the range for the Federal Funds Rate at 4.00-4.25%. read more
Mixed messages from the BoC
The BoC eased by 25bps following the September policy decision, the Bank’s first rate cut since March, taking the policy rate to 2.50%, read more
Canadian CPI does just enough to guarantee a September cut
Canadian CPI data for August broadly matched expectations, keeping the BoC on track to cut rates tomorrow. read more
Lagarde declares victory
With the ECB unanimously expected to leave rates unchanged ahead of today’s policy rate announcement, all eyes were on President Lagarde. read more
An inflation uptick overshadowed by labour market concerns
US CPI rose more than expected in August, seeing all-items price growth of 0.4%MoM, above the 0.3% reading predicted by sell-side consensus. read more
Norges Bank Between a Rock and a Hard Place
The August inflation report has left Norges Bank facing a classic policy dilemma - does it acknowledge that disinflation is not evolving as expected? read more
Payrolls slump, confirming a September cut
A broad collapse across the August jobs report all but guarantees a Fed rate cut this month. At 22k gains, NFPs undershot market expectations of 75k. read more
Monex’s September 2025 FX Forecasts
After a quiet summer, FX volatility will pick up in September as traders return and the event calendar tests macro expectations. Read our latest forecasts. read more
NBP delivers expected cut, but fiscal risks muddy the path forward
As we expected, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) delivered a 25bp rate cut in September, bringing the reference rate to 4.75%. read more
European PMIs improve, but with underlying divergence evident
European PMIs surprised to the upside across the board in August, signalling a stronger-than-predicted expansion in activity through the summer. read more
The Riksbank is playing for time and holds at 2%
In Sweden, the Riksbank left its policy rate unchanged at 2.00% today, as expected, and in line with consensus. read more
Canadian July CPI remains solid where it matters
A marginal undershoot in July’s CPI does not radically change the outlook for Canadian rate setters. We look for the next BOC rate cut to come in October. read more
Norges Bank holds in August but sets up a September cut
As expected, Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.25% at its meeting on August 14. read more
FOMC left hoping for greater clarity next month
A mixed set of takeaways from the July CPI leaves Fed officials hoping for greater clarity in the August data, due days before the September FOMC meeting. read more
June labour market data proves a flash in the pan
A June improvement for the Canadian labour market has not been sustained. Canada’s July labour force data shows headline employment falling by -41k jobs. read more
A muddle on the MPC
The Bank of England has trimmed its policy rate by 25bps, taking Bank Rate to 4.00%, matching consensus expectations, including our own. read more
Monex’s August 2025 FX Forecasts
Our FX Market Analysts are marking to market our short-term forecasts, reflecting recent volatility and what is likely to be a quiet August period. read more
July payrolls dent greenback sentiment
July’s payroll numbers disappointed relative to expectations, rising by just 73k to send shockwaves through markets. read more
Powell pushes back on easing bets
The FOMC has left the target rate for the Federal Funds Rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50%, matching both our own expectations and economist consensus. read more
An easing bias, but no timetable
The Bank of Canada has left rates unchanged at 2.75% once again following the July policy meeting, matching consensus expectations and our own house call. read more
European PMIs signal a reversal in fortunes
European flash PMIs for July signal a reversal in fortunes, with a pick-up in the eurozone contrasting against soft UK prints to weigh on GBPEUR. read more
US CPI offers few reasons to cut, but poses downside dollar risks
The long-awaited US CPI data for June largely matched consensus expectations, with price growth rising across the board. read more
NFPs see traders gut July easing odds, boosting the dollar
June's robust headline labour market prints have seen traders slash Fed easing odds, but a knee-jerk dollar jump will likely be pared back. read more
Monex’s July 2025 FX Forecasts
The dollar ends H1 at a three-year low, with further downside risks building. We lower our forecasts amid persistent headwinds. read more
May CPI does little to shift the picture for the BoC
Canadian CPI data for May remains inconclusive regarding tariff passthrough, with details offering hints but not concrete evidence. read more
No material changes from the BoE
The Bank of England has left rates unchanged following the MPC’s June policy meeting, matching consensus expectations and our own pre-announcement call. read more
Norges Bank surprises with dovish shift
The Norges Bank has surprised markets by cutting its policy rate from 4.50% to 4.25% following the Bank’s June meeting. read more
The SNB cuts to zero, but comes off as hawkish
The Swiss National Bank has cut rates by 25bps following the June policy meeting. This latest decision takes rates back to 0.0%, matching market consensus. read more
Still paralysed by uncertainty
The Fed leaves rates untouched once again, pointing to inflation uncertainty as a reason to remain unmoved, and helping to underpin the dollar process. read more
The Riksbank cuts, but is probably done
The Riksbank has cut the policy rate to 2.00% at their June rate decision, matching consensus expectations and our Monex analysts' own house call. read more
Empty statements do little for the pound
The 2025 Spending Review, delivered by Chancellor Rachel Reeves today, presented a fiscal landscape of tight constraints and strategic reallocations. read more
US CPI undershoots expectations in May
US prices grew slower than expected in May, defying forecasts for an uptick as tariffs begin to feed through to inflation. read more
Payrolls remain solid, despite tariff fears
The May jobs report shows little impact from the recent political chaos as yet, holding hawkish implications for Fed officials. read more
Lagarde hints toward the end of ECB easing
While the ECB cut rates following the June meeting, Lagarde hinted at the end of policy easing in her press conference. read more
A high bar to further cuts
The BoC left rates unchanged at 2.75% following their June policy meeting, as we had anticipated, flagging elevated underlying price growth. read more
Monex’s June 2025 FX Forecasts
Dollar ends May flat as Trump-related risks offset Fed support. June outlook remains clouded by trade and fiscal uncertainty. read more
CAD inflation heats up below the surface
Looking purely at headline numbers, the April drop in annual CPI growth would appear to be good news for the BoC. read more
April CPI shows no sign yet of tariff impacts
US CPI growth marginally undershot expectations in April, but with little sign of tariff impacts visible in the data, markets remain in limbo. read more
Canadian job market eases again, despite mixed headlines
Canada’s April labour market data has delivered a mixed set of headlines, leaving the loonie largely unmoved. read more
A hawkish cut from the BoE helps sterling
The Bank of England’s MPC has cut rates as expected, a move that takes Bank Rate to 4.25%, matching consensus expectations and our own house call. read more
Still waiting to even get started
The Norges Bank has maintained the deposit rate at 4.50% once again, in line with our expectations and economist consensus. read more
Cracking open the door to a cut
The Riksbank held its policy rate at 2.25% following the May meeting, matching both consensus and our own house call. read more
The Fed punts on mandate priorities
The FOMC maintained the range of the Federal Funds Rate at 4.25-4.50% once again at the May policy meeting, matching economist consensus. read more
Monex’s May 2025 FX Forecasts
Events over the past month have left the buck battered, but not yet broken. Read Monex's May 2025 FX Forecasts to find out more. read more
The dollar struggles for gains despite a solid set of payrolls in April
The April jobs report delivered another solid set of readings, but a more sustained dollar pick up may have to wait until next week's FOMC meeting. read more
European PMIs slide as tariffs start to bite
Tariff concerns begin to bite, particularly in the UK, triggering a sharp slowdown in the April flash PMIs that has weighed on GBPEUR post-release. read more
A CPI undershoot puts BoC easing back in play
The March inflation data undershot expectations to put a Bank of Canada rate cut this week back in play. read more
Monex’s April 2025 FX Forecasts
Monex’s April FX Forecasts: US growth concerns replace tariff risks, while the euro surges. Explore our latest outlook and key currency trends. read more
EURUSD hits a top
EURUSD has surged past 1.09, defying parity expectations. We see a pullback ahead before a sustained euro rebound later this year. read more
Monex’s March 2025 FX Forecasts
Tariff risks are now materialising, with Trump’s trade policies set to drive market volatility and support dollar strength throughout March. read more
Monex’s February 2025 FX Forecasts
Tariffs risks continue to be under-priced by FX markets. Our Monex analysts expect this story to remain front of mind in the coming month. read more
Macro Outlook 2025: A weaker dollar looks unlikely in 2025
Political upheaval, including Trump's election, will increase market uncertainty in 2025, with the dollar likely to remain strong and drive volatility. read more
A more muted krone in 2025
US election results prompt stronger USDNOK forecasts, though a muted rise in early 2025 leaves less recovery needed later. read more
Monex’s December 2024 FX Forecasts
Now that it has been confirmed that Trump is set to re-claim the presidency, our Monex analysts are taking another look at what this will entail. read more
US elections: Trump wins Bigly
Now that the dust has settled on the US elections, we take a look forward at what the final outcomes could mean for FX markets. read more
Monex’s November 2024 FX Forecasts
US elections should be key for the dollar in November, with traders braced for volatility whoever wins the White House. read more
Monex’s October 2024 FX Forecasts
Several key developments last month give us confidence that our underlying thesis remains intact, retaining our forecast for a stronger dollar this month. read more
Monex’s September 2024 FX Forecasts
Our analysts believe there is a risk of overinterpreting the dollar’s slide through August’s muted trading conditions and expect a reassessment in September. read more
Monex’s August 2024 FX Forecasts
The end of the month and beginning of August, has seen numerous events combined in a perfect storm to see a notable uptick in market volatility. read more
Monex’s July 2024 FX Forecasts
Our analysts have pushed back their expectations for the dollar's decline when looking at the backdrop for G10 and EMs regarding risks and politics. read more
Staying bearish on weak cyclicals
Given the recent rate cut by the Bank of Canada, our analysts expect a deeper easing cycle from the BoC this year and are bearish on the loonie's outlook. read more
Monex’s June 2024 FX Forecasts
Our analysts expect central bank policy to remain firmly in the spotlight in June, whilst traders will also be paying close attention to upcoming elections. read more
Monex’s May 2024 FX Forecasts
We believe the pace of USD appreciation is likely to slow over the course of Q2 as investors and central banks remain wary of a stronger dollar. read more
Monex’s April 2024 FX Forecasts
Our market analysts believe expectations of monetary easing across the G10 are likely to diverge further in April. Here's Monex's latest FX forecasts for April. read more
Monex’s March 2024 FX Forecasts
With more central bank meetings set for this month, we think policymakers will have to recognise the growing divergence in economic fundamentals. read more
Monex’s February 2024 FX Forecasts
With markets having now unwound December’s moves, our FX analysts believe the scope for further US dollar appreciation looks more limited for February. read more
Macro Outlook 2024: Not so fast – dollar to decline but rout unlikely
This year is set to see policy easing play out across most major economies, though our FX analysts foresee a bumpier ride than many are predicting for 2024. read more
Monex’s December 2023 FX Forecasts
Whilst our FX analysts maintain a bearish view on the US dollar from mid-2024 onwards, they continue to envisage a stronger dollar heading into 24Q2. read more
BoE holds rates at 5.25% in “finely balanced” decision
The BoE today voted 5-4 in favour of holding rates at 5.25% as opposed to hiking a further 25bps, with Governor Bailey playing kingmaker in the decision. read more
Monex’s September 2023 FX Forecasts
Our Monex analysts continue to favour the greenback against yield (JPY) and growth sensitive (EUR and CNY) currencies over the next month. read more
Monex’s August 2023 FX Forecasts
With the risk of the Fed hiking once more in Q4 still credible, we expect the shallow and bumpy downtrend in the dollar to continue throughout Q3. read more
Expect more GBP downside on underwhelming BoE
Our analysts expect the Bank of England will hike 25bp in August following weak inflation data leading to further depreciation in the pound. read more
Monex’s July 2023 FX Forecasts
Although the global tightening cycle is approaching its final phase, monetary policy remains one of the primary drivers of FX market price action. read more
ECB forces markets to reconsider 4% terminal rate
The European Central Bank today raised all its key interest rates by 25bps, taking the deposit rate to 3.5%, the refinancing rate to 4% and the marginal lending facility rate to 4.25%. read more
Monex’s June 2023 FX Forecasts
Market price action over the past month was dominated by the twin themes of political dysfunction and economic convergence. read more
Monex’s May 2023 FX Forecasts
With central banks in the US and elsewhere hitting the end of their hiking cycles, we see near-term policy expectations losing some impact on FX volatility. read more
Monex’s April 2023 FX Forecasts
Whilst our FX Analysts' March forecasts have broadly panned out, it was the driving force behind these moves that came as a surprise to them. read more
Monex’s March 2023 FX Forecasts
Our FX analysts expect a reversal in some of February's price action on the back of reduced upside risk to US rates and potentially reduced volatility within the space. Here's a look at the latest Monex FX Forecasts for March 2023. read more
Monex’s February 2023 FX Forecasts
The market's repositioning has been quite aggressive to date, leading us to believe that the dollar is overdue a period of consolidation in the near-term. read more
Macro Outlook 2023: The macro climate remains challenging for investors
Following a volatile year defined by rising inflation pressures, the macro environment is unlikely to ease up for investors in 2023. read more
Monex’s December 2022 FX Forecasts
Our house view has now shifted tactically neutral on the US dollar in the near term and await a shift in structural factors to trigger a secular decline in the dollar. read more
Monex’s November 2022 FX Forecasts
For now, our outlook on the dollar remains constructive until jobs and inflation data allow the Fed to downshift. read more
Monex’s October 2022 FX Forecasts
Although a high level of bond market volatility is filtering through to FX markets our analysts believe the dollar has a structural basis to grind higher in Q4. read more
Week Ahead: Fire sale in markets may not ease despite thinner data calendar
In the week ahead, the economic calendar dies down slightly, although the start to the week might not be frictionless as traders return with the results of Italy’s latest election. read more
The not so “mini” UK budget
At today’s mini-budget, newly appointed Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng announced a substantial easing of fiscal policy that awoke the bond vigilantes and sent the gilt curve substantially higher, led by the front-end. read more
Week Ahead: Deluge of central bank decisions populate next week’s calendar
In the week ahead, the data calendar is dominated by a torrent of interest rate decisions as nine major central banks prepare to adjust their monetary policy. The main event, however, will be Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision. read more
Monex’s September 2022 FX Forecasts
Our forecasts are more bullish on the dollar as we no longer expect the Fed’s downshift to 50bps in September to be as supportive for risk conditions. read more
Monex’s August 2022 FX Forecasts
DXY index is likely to stay supported, owing to our expectation that the euro-area’s growth outlook will force another run on parity this month. read more
Monex’s July 2022 FX Forecasts
Read Monex's July 2022 FX Forecasts. Find our what our top forecasters expect for currency markets, amid ongoing recession concerns and higher inflation. read more
Spooked by services inflation, the BoE doves fall back in line
The Bank of England voted 6-3 in favour of raising rates by 25bps to 1.25%. The dissenters (Haskell, Mann, and Saunders) all voted to hike rates by 50bps, in order to mitigate against risks that wage growth, firms’ pricing decisions, and inflation expectations fuel persistence in above-target inflation. read more
Monex’s June 2022 FX Forecasts
Read Monex's June 2022 FX Forecasts. Find our what our top forecasters expect for currency markets, amid ongoing global growth and inflation concerns. read more
Monex’s May 2022 FX Forecasts
Read Monex's May 2022 FX Forecasts. Find our what our top forecasters expect for currency markets, amid current geopolitical events and uncertain conditions. read more
CAD Outlook: Loonie strength to continue in Q2 on higher oil and BoC support
The Canadian dollar has been highly sensitive to monetary policy actions and price action in global commodities over the course of Q1. Under our base case for commodities and the Bank of Canada in Q2, which envisages two 50bp hikes, we believe gains in the Canadian dollar are likely to continue. However, our flatter forecast for the BoC policy rate in H2 will likely weigh on the loonie at the margin as the pace of Fed tightening overtakes that of the Bank of Canada. read more
Monex’s April 2022 FX Forecasts
While the limited progress in peace talks towards the end of the month blurred the overall dollar dynamics due to a positive boost to regional risk sentiment, we still expect some of the dominant drivers of FX markets from March to remain in play in April. read more
Russia-Ukraine makes central banks think twice about hikes
Risk sentiment chopped and changed throughout the week as all eyes remained on Russia-Ukraine developments. This week monetary policy decisions by the FOMC and BoE are set to show similar levels of caution to the ECB, although both central banks are still expected to hike interest rates by 25bps. read more
Euro jolts above 1.11 as ECB surprises markets with hawkish move despite war in Ukraine
Today’s European Central Bank decision came as music to the ears of EUR bulls. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine having materially changed the eurozone risk profile in a matter of weeks, the last thing markets expected was for the ECB - which is usually very cautious around its wording - to come out with a definitive announcement of a faster taper to their QE programme. read more
US inflation highest since January 1982, but markets unfazed
US headline inflation today printed at 7.9% YoY for February, up from 7.5% in January, to record the fastest pace of price growth in 40 years. Unlike in previous readings, however, the core reading was much more muted at just 0.5% MoM. read more
EUR Update: European currencies battered by latest Russia-Ukraine headlines – is there a floor?
Since the publication of our latest FX forecasts at the beginning of the month, significant developments in the Russia-Ukraine war have put increased pressure on European currencies and equities. Over the last month, the respective currencies of these nations have therefore performed even worse than the euro. The question now is; where will price action stabilise? read more
Monex’s March 2022 FX Forecasts
Geopolitical events are likely to continue driving FX markets in the near-term and with no clear end game as things stand, our forecasts remain under review. Our base case scenario at present is that the pace of geopolitical developments slow in March, but recent events result in a material deterioration in Europe’s macroeconomic backdrop and a still tentative risk environment. read more
EUR Update: Fluid backdrop to keep volatility elevated
The ongoing political risk in Europe means EURUSD is going to remain an easy target within the G10, while rising US Treasury yields the euro’s sensitivity to them will also be a risk. Looking over to H2, an improvement in global growth conditions will be more deterministic for the euro when the monetary outlook and political backdrop has become more stable. read more
Monex’s February 2022 FX Forecasts
Looking ahead, our FX analysts expect the dollar’s strength to be more nuanced in February and for it to be isolated against currencies where rates are likely to lag the rise in US rates. In our forecasts, this largely pertains to EUR, JPY and CNY. read more
BRL Outlook: Hawkish BCB to offset depreciation, but political risks may tip the balance
As the year progresses, the Brazilian general elections that are set to be held in October will become increasingly relevant for FX markets given the real’s reputation of weakening in times of political uncertainty and upcoming elections. read more
UK economy finally recovers to above pre-pandemic levels of output
Today's release of UK GDP data for November saw economic activity more than double the consensus estimate with a print of 0.9% MoM. In addition to this, October’s monthly GDP reading was revised upwards from 0.1% to 0.2%. read more
Monex’s 12 key market themes for 2022
Trade ideas tend to have a short shelflife in today's market, so instead of issuing trade suggestions for 2022, we have opted to outline the main themes we think will dominate market price action in the coming 12 months. read more
US inflation near 40-year high, but financial markets are underwhelmed
Despite the US CPI release showed that headline inflation is sitting at its highest point since June 1982, the reaction in the Treasury market was counterintuitive and the dollar sold-off against its G10 peers. read more
US and Canadian labour market reactive
Expectations for today’s US payrolls data were high after multiple sell-side forecasters revised their projections for the net employment figure upwards following the higher ADP and Homebase data from earlier in the week. read more
FOMC meeting minutes strike hawkish tone, but it’s one for the fixed income traders
It seems today's FOMC meeting minutes is one for the fixed income traders as opposed to the FX space. For FX markets, the impact of today’s meeting minutes will likely play out over the course of the week, especially as December’s jobs data is released on Friday following bumper ADP and Homebase indicators earlier in the week. read more
Monex January 2022 FX Forecasts
Looking ahead to 2022, our forecasts have been adjusted to take into account the new sensitivities of central banks to inflation, continuing virus risks and the likely slowdown in growth in Q1. Omicron risk continues to dominate as policymakers conduct a balancing act in order to mitigate the health and economic impacts. read more
Bank of Canada formalises its implicit employment goal in new inflation mandate
While today’s announcement falls in line with what economists were largely expecting and is merely a formalisation of the mandate that has been in practice since the onset of the pandemic, it is being viewed as a marginal dovish development by markets. read more
Omicroncerns clouding the monetary outlook ahead of year end
Next week’s (13th - 17th December) calendar includes nine central banks scheduled to announce their policy decisions, which means FX volatility is likely to pick up. All of which are likely to be clouded by concerns over the impact of the Omicron variant. read more
BoC and NBP to keep markets busy ahead of US CPI
Next week’s (6th - 10th November) calendar includes a BoC meeting and an NBP meeting, along with several CPI releases including the US. While the BoC is expected to hold fire on Wednesday, Thursday’s speech from BoC Deputy Governor Gravelle will be heavily watched. read more
Lower growth profile and rising US yields call for downgraded EUR calls
In November, significant downside risks to our November forecasts materialised, with growth concerns and rising US yields pushing EURUSD down from 1.16 to the 1.12 level. Growth concerns arose as some eurozone countries went into light lockdowns. read more
Projected rate paths are key for NZD and SEK
Next week (22nd - 26th November), focus remains on how markets price central bank tolerances to inflation and global growth conditions as Covid cases begin to rise and force major nations to impose tighter containment measures. read more
UK CPI, labour market data keep BoE on track for December hike
UK CPI massively outstripped expectations to print at its highest 12-month rate since December 2011, and the month-on-month change saw the pace of price increases reach a high not seen since April 1993. While today’s data exceeded the consensus estimate from economists, it is broadly in line with the BoE’s projections, which envisage CPI peaking at 5% in April 2022 when Ofgem adjusts its price cap again. read more
US CPI keeps markets volatile following the central bank bonanza
Next week (15th - 19th November), CPI remains top of mind as a number of nations are set to release reports highlighting above target price growth, however, we believe these releases will have less of an impact on broader markets relative to the US release this week. Additionally, central banks from South Africa and Turkey are expected to deliver fresh rate decisions. read more
US inflation tracks back above 6%, placing pressure on transitory messaging
With expectations for October’s CPI print to rise from 5.4% to 5.9% YoY already in play, today’s inflation release had to be big to disrupt markets beyond what had already been priced into the Treasury curve and in the FX space during the morning session. read more
ECB and Fed speakers in scope after dovish retaliation
Next week (8th - 12th November), despite the absence of any major central bank meetings, the focus will remain on monetary policy pricing, especially as the Fed’s media blackout period ends. Notable speeches from Chicago Fed Evans and San Francisco’s Daly will be in scope for US rate traders, while opening remarks from the ECB’s Chief Economist Lane will be top of mind for euro money markets. read more
Strong payrolls keep US front-end yields firm, boosting the dollar
Amid the dovish pushback from G10 central banks this week and the broad rally in bond markets, front-end US Treasury yields have remained fairly resilient. This theme was extended in early trading today, helping the dollar gain ground ahead of October’s payroll data. While Canada’s net employment change undershot expectations by 10.4k with a print of 31.2k, today's LFS largely met our expectations. read more
Bank of England bats back market expectations, sends sterling plummeting
The Bank of England today shocked markets by voting 7-2 to hold rates at 0.1% while voting 6-3 to maintain the current stock of assets at £875bn. While we largely expected the Bank to hit back against aggressive market pricing of rate hikes by holding rates, we anticipated a tighter split in the vote in order to signal to markets that tighter policy was imminent at December’s meeting. read more
Time to taper, but that is all from the Fed for now
The Federal Reserve largely met the market consensus today by announcing plans to taper its QE programme by a maximum of $15bn per month until year-end. Powell opened the door further to give policymakers greater optionality going forward. read more
The central bank magic trick: turning a dove into a hawk in plain sight
Price action in G10 FX markets this week has been driven predominantly by pricing in bond markets and the actions of central banks. This dynamic is set to continue next week (1st - 5th November) as the battle against rising inflation migrates from the Bank of Canada and the ECB to the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of England. read more
ECB meeting: Inflation, inflation, inflation
Despite the suppressed expectations, the ECB managed to dull the event down even further by adjusting their opening statement such that it indicates the decision would not include an assessment of the economic outlook. The lack of excitement was visible across markets, as EURUSD remained unfazed after the release of the initial rate statement. read more
Bank of Canada ends QE and emboldens hawkish market pricing
The Bank of Canada today announced that it would taper its QE programme by a further C$1bn a week, therefore entering the reinvestment stage, while it also brought forward its forecast for the output gap closing from H2 2022 to “the middle quarters” of next year. read more
Central banks to take centre stage ahead of crucial GDP readings
A flurry of central bank meetings take will place across the globe next week (25th - 29th October), while Q3 GDP prints from the US and eurozone will take centre stage on Friday. Several countries will also release inflation readings. Among the central bank meetings are the Bank of Canada, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank - in order of importance. read more
EUR Update: Euro weighed down by near-term factors, medium-term outlook rosier
While September’s losses were significant at over 2%, we expect the pressure on the euro to ease over the coming months as supply pressures mitigate, which should help to cool inflation and aid growth conditions. We expect the combination of these developments to be supportive for EURUSD. read more
Economic activity and inflation data put stagflation fears to the test
Next week (18th - 22nd October), the data calendar revolves around October’s preliminary PMI prints, while China’s Q3 GDP data also scans as one of the more interesting releases. The focus on activity data is likely to be heightened given growth concerns over previous weeks and the impact higher input costs are having. This is especially the case in the eurozone, UK, and China, where rising energy costs are the most pronounced. read more
USD Update: Defiant dollar in Q4
Amid the global backdrop of lower growth and higher inflation, the dollar is likely to stay well bid in Q4. However, our latest forecasts now see the DXY index trading a percentage point lower than current spot levels and back towards highs of its previous trading range as the aggressive repricing in FX markets overextended in early October given our views on back-end US rates this year. read more
Big miss in ZEW fails to dent EURUSD as G10 yields moderate
Today’s miss in the German ZEW data highlights how German activity is struggling to expand at the start of Q4 as current conditions are no longer improving. The current situation gauge tumbled from 31.9 in September to 21.6 in October, well below expectations of 28.5. EURUSD escaped the lack of optimism spilling into FX markets despite the big miss in today’s ZEW data, as at the same time yields in G10 markets have been moderating today after yesterday’s dramatic climb higher. read more
Macro backdrop of slower growth and rising inflation set to dominate FX markets
Next week (11th - 15th October), with a limited data calendar, markets are likely to continue focusing on the inflation backdrop and the impact it will have on growth conditions. We take a brief look at the environment in Europe this week and what it means for ECB and BoE pricing. read more
Diverging labour reports play out in North America
It was our expectation that today’s Canadian and US labour market reports would show a stark divergence, not only in net employment but also in underlying metrics. This ultimately played out, with the US jobs market adding 194k jobs in September compared with expectations of a 500k increase, while Canada added 157.1k jobs relative to expectations of just a 60k net employment gain. read more
Grappling with the stagflationary backdrop
Next week (27th September - 1st October), the focus shifts from policy announcements to individual central bankers. The RBA, RBNZ and NBP will have to announce their policy decisions given the latest downturn in the global economic outlook, while on the data front, US and Canadian labour market data stands out. read more
From policy announcements to central bank speakers
Next week (27th September - 1st October), the focus quickly shifts from policy announcements to individual central bankers as a swathe of speakers fill the economic calendar, largely due to the ECB’s forum on central banking taking place between the 28th and 29th of September. Rather than being in Sintra (Portugal) as has been customary, the event will take place online. read more
Bank of England delivers hawkish surprise, even by the markets standard
The Bank of England today voted unanimously to keep the Bank Rate at 0.1%, while members voted 7-2 in favour of continuing with its existing QE programme. The shift in the QE vote, from 7-1 to 7-2 due to Ramsden joining Saunders in dissenting, set the tone for what was to be a hawkish set of meeting minutes despite their Q3 GDP projection being downgraded by around a percentage point. read more
Fed signals faster tapering in 2023 but under-delivers on next year’s dot plot
For those looking for an explosive Fed meeting, they may have initially been disappointed by the alterations in the dot plot. However, Powell’s comments meant volatility wasn’t absent in the FX space, with the likes of EURUSD swinging within a 0.55% range and USDJPY climbing over half a per cent higher on the day. read more
Central bank bonanza
The 20th - 24th September is packed with central bank meetings, with the FOMC’s decision on Wednesday eyed as the most important economic event by markets. On top of that, the Bank of England is set to release their latest policy decision, while the Norges Bank is expected to be the first G10 central bank to raise rates since the pandemic. read more
Inflation to sit top of mind next week
Next week’s data calendar focuses heavily on inflation data in major developed market economies, while core CPI readings from Poland and inflation expectations data in Turkey will be viewed amid historically high CPI readings. read more
Central banks set to stretch hawkish wings
Next week, price action in US fixed income markets will continue to garner a lot of market attention, while increasingly hawkish central bank developments will also be in scope. Of note is the Reserve Bank of Australia, who we expect to press on with tapering their QE programme, the Bank of Russia who are expected to hike by 50bps, the National Bank of Poland who will battle with record high inflation, and the European Central Bank. read more
Focus shifts from Jackson Hole to US jobs data
In the week beginning Monday 30th August, the market’s emphasis shifts to monitoring the severity of the latest Covid-19 waves driven by the delta variant, the economic impact they are having via timely data points, and August’s Nonfarm Payrolls data next week. Fixed income and money markets will be taking their cues from the latest payroll data in order to price expectations of September’s Fed meeting. read more
Jackson Hole arrives after a volatile week for macro conditions
With a tentative macroeconomic backdrop, next week’s data is likely to have a larger market impact than usual, especially with the quantity of preliminary PMI releases for August. The Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium should provide markets with a bit more clarity as to its tapering timeline. read more
One week closer to Jackson Hole
Markets are likely to settle somewhat as they await the headlines from the Jackson Hole symposium on August 27th. Next week’s calendar suggests there may be pockets of isolated volatility with policy decisions from both the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Norges Bank, while the Reserve Bank of Australia and Federal Reserve both publish meeting minutes. read more
To hike or not to hike, that is the question
Markets this week have largely focused on underlying growth conditions, FOMC speakers and Friday’s labour market data, with US bond markets sending conflicting signals to FX traders. Next week (9th – 13th August), the key pieces of data centre around rate decisions from Banxico and the CBRT, both of which have reasons to hike rates due to rising inflation but also have grounds to stay pat. read more
Canadian employment underperforms, but it isn’t all bad
July’s employment data out of Canada saw the economy add 94,000 jobs. While on the surface, the slip looks seismic, the nature of the job additions and the stage in which the Canadian labour market recovery is at means the underperformance of the net employment data isn’t as concerning as the headline suggests. read more
Bank of England in focus after inflation overshoots and labour market progress
Next week, the focus will be on the Bank of England to announce its policy decision and comment on the recent inflation overshoots and recovery in the labour market. read more
Q2 GDP data and the Fed are in focus amid a global third wave
Markets will pay close attention to commentary by Chair Powell and the Fed’s assessment of current conditions. A first glance at economic performance in advanced economies in Q2 is also pinned for the week, although growing fears over the coming months might cloud the impact positive GDP figures have on markets. read more
ECB guidance to take centre stage next week, CBR set to hike rates
The ECB takes centre stage next week, with a revamped strategy review setting the tone for a persistently more dovish course of action in the months to come, while the CBR is set to hike rates further amid a light data calendar. read more
Central banks in focus next week after Fed’s hawkish shift
Next week will be critical to assessing the way forward as a fresh batch of inflation data is released and several central banks face the press cameras. On the side, political developments might add excitement to markets. read more
Monetary policy in scope with FOMC minutes and ECB strategy review
This week (5th - 9th July), the meeting minutes from the Fed’s June meeting will be scoured by market participants as they try to gain a clearer view on future US interest rates, and the ECB’s Governing Council is set to also meet next week in Frankfurt to discuss the ongoing policy review. read more
First Nonfarm Payrolls since Fed may cause significant volatility
Last week, volatility in FX markets was largely driven by the hawkish shift by the FOMC, as broad dollar moves drove price action in G10 currency pairs. This week, the focus remains largely on the US, with the release of the first Nonfarm Payrolls report since last week’s Fed meeting. read more
Markets to tune into FOMC speakers after the Fed’s hawkish shift
The focus next week will now be on US data and whether that can live up to the expectations set by the Federal Reserve, while a few FOMC speakers will provide markets with a bit more clarity on their position on the economic outlook. read more
A week of central bank decisions but the Fed will draw most of the focus
The Federal Reserve, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, and the Central Bank of Brazil are likely to be the most exciting on this week's agenda. Over the weekend, events in the UK will focussed on the government’s decision to stick to its June 21st reopening plan as cases of the delta variant rise. read more
It is all about PEPP
Looking ahead, central banks will come back to the fore next week with the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, and the Bank of Russia releasing their latest policy decisions. The ECB is likely to steal the show as speculation over the next PEPP decision rises. read more
All eyes on US and Canada labour market data after underwhelming April reports
Next week (31st - 4th June), the focus turns to labour market data from the US and Canada after April’s underwhelming reports. Also on the agenda are policy decisions from the RBA and Reserve Bank of India and China’s official manufacturing PMI. read more
Limited top-tier economic data puts USD dynamics further into focus
Next week (24th - 28th May), the economic calendar is light on major market-moving events. US PCE inflation stands out as the most high profile data point on the calendar along with the latest RBNZ rate decision, while the focus will remain on central bank speakers. read more
European vaccine rollout takes centre stage while developing countries struggle with a dire Covid situation
We continue to track the evolution of the vaccine rollout in major economies, as a timely gauge of potential reopening and global economic recovery. In this edition, we highlight the European efforts to catch up with front-runners like the UK and US, while stressing the dire picture in some emerging markets. read more
A post Brexit Britain leaves sterling at the mercy of Covid-19 developments
The stale nature of Brexit developments over the course of Q4 means it has been some time since our last GDP outlook. In the latter stage of 2020, despite Covid-19 developments, the pound continued to trade based off no-deal Brexit risk as the clock wound down and negotiations stalled. read more