Euro takes a dive on German Manufacturing Recession
April 18, 2019
The euro is under pressure again this morning after a dismal print for Germany’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index. Yesterday the European Central Bank’s dovish stance once again got justified by the the data as the Final March Consumer Price Index Reading came in bang on expectations, with the Core CPI reading at a meagre 0.8%. The 12-month rolling basis Eurozone Current Account surplus shrank to 2.9% of Gross Domestic Product, down from 3.3% over the same period last year. This is mostly driven by the lower trade surplus, which supersedes the rise in the primary income surplus. This morning eurozone Purchasing Managers’ Indices were released. The most notable print was German Manufacturing PMI, which missed expectations and rose only slightly to 44.5, still deeply in contractionary territory.
A sedate session saw sterling stuck in the middle of the G10 currency board yesterday, after a minor miss on inflation wasn’t enough to cause any significant volatility. The March year on year Consumer Price Index missed the 2.0% mark by the narrowest of margins at 1.9%, with the core rate steady at 1.8%. As the labour market remains near record tightness, while the UK economy appears to be dealing well with the Brexit uncertainty, there seems to be quite the impetus for the Bank of England to hike tighten policy within a 12-month horizon. This morning at 09:30 BST Retail Sales data will be released.
The dollar had a brief moment of weakness yesterday morning as investors weighed the importance of the morning’s good Chinese GDP data, but regained its footing in the afternoon and was well bid against the G10 currencies as a whole. Applications for loans to buy US homes reached their highest level in almost nine years, as the Mortgage Bankers Association purchase Index showed, although the broader main applications index fell 3.5% on lower refinancings. Today’s USD calendar includes Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at 13:30 BST, followed by Purchasing Managers Indices at 14:45, and Business Inventories as well as the CB LEading Index at 15:00.
The loonie briefly traded at its strongest levels against USD since March yesterday, after Consumer PRice Index data showed several measures of inflation rising significantly faster than expected. The gains were quickly pared back in the afternoon, however, as crude oil prices gave up most of Tuesday’s rapid increases. Canada’s Trade Balance for February was released, and showed a broad decrease in imports that shrunk the net deficit to just $2.9bn.