Monex Canada March 2021 FX Forecasts

FX market price action focused heavily on vaccine developments and reflationary dynamics in February. Given the important role vaccine distribution plays in FX price action, we launched a monthly vaccine distribution chartbook as a means to monitor major vaccine developments around the globe. The importance of vaccines on FX markets has been best highlighted by sterling’s rally in February. The pound rose 1.62% against the dollar and 2.24% against the euro over the course of the month, with GBPUSD trading firmly above the $1.40 handle and GBPEUR hitting fresh one-year highs prior to the month-end sell-off. Improved optimism around the pound was largely driven by the UK’s rapid vaccination programme, which allowed Prime Minister Johnson to announce a roadmap out of lockdown much earlier than peers. The roadmap compounded the Bank of England’s optimistic outlook for the UK recovery too after they struck hawkish tones in their February meeting.

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