Monex’s June 2024 FX Forecasts

The key question for markets over summer will now be how long DM central banks can delay substantive easing. As such, while the elections might grab the newspaper headlines, central bank policy should remain in the market spotlight in June. Outside the US, the BoC and ECB should join the G10 easing club this month. The BoE, in contrast, looks set to keep policy on hold, as does the SNB, with both banks having seen June rate cut odds gutted in May. For most other DM central banks, high for longer should remain the mantra, with widening expected rate differentials likely to prove currency supportive as policy divergence across the G10 grows. Even so, the Fed is once again set to be centre of attention, with no rate cuts likely this month, leaving multiple avenues open for the dollar to stage a last-gasp rally, before the Fed ultimately joins the easing cycle.

You can read our June 2024 FX Forecasts report here:

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Authors:

Simon Harvey, Head of FX Analysis

Nick Rees, FX Market Analyst

María Marcos, FX Market Analyst

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared by Monex Europe Holdings Limited, part of Monex S.A.P.I. de C.V. (“Monex”). The material is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is, or should be considered to be, financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All entities in the “Monex” group of companies are regulated for different products and services within the jurisdictions in which they operate. Details of the different entities can be found here. Details of the respective entities’ regulated status and available products and services can then be found on the relevant links to the individual jurisdictions’ website.