The peak in FX volatility seems to have passed, although we expect volatility to remain relatively high in November. With more stability in global rates markets and risks in the UK and China having abated, traders can pay greater focus to central banks as they balance the trade-off between fighting inflation and avoiding recession. The dollar has pulled back from this year’s highs, thanks to renewed risk appetite. That said, we expect funds to keep most of their powder dry until the Fed signals an upcoming pause in its hiking cycle. For now, our outlook on the dollar remains constructive until jobs and inflation data allow the Fed to downshift, which we expect at either the December or February meeting.
You can read our November 2022 FX Forecasts report here:
Simon Harvey, Head of FX Analysis
Jay Zhao-Murray, FX Market Analyst
María Marcos, FX Market Analyst
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