The dollar rallied in October, buoyed by stronger-than-expected economic data and FOMC pushback on recession fears. Meanwhile, tensions between Iran and Israel, along with shifts in the U.S. presidential race between Trump and Harris, added further upside support for the greenback. Indeed, it is this latter dynamic that is front of mind at the beginning of November, with the race for the presidency too close to call. From a currency perspective, it is fiscal and trade policy that matters most, and the differences between Trump and Harris are significant. This leaves the dollar at a crossroads, with traders bracing for volatility. All eyes are now on the US, with the next resident of the White House set to be a major influence on global markets in the coming months.
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Author:
Nick Rees, Senior FX Market Analyst