At eleven successive days and counting, the current rally in USDCHF is the longest since 1975 according to Bloomberg. However, with the SNB likely to intervene in markets to prevent EURCHF breaking above 0.97 and the decline in EURUSD likely to meet resistance at the 1.05 handle, the unimpaired rally in USDCHF is likely to end soon. In fact, under our base case that SNB intervention will likely result in EURCHF trading within the current 0.95-0.97 range for the remainder of this year and EURUSD unlikely to break towards or through parity without the emergence of a pronounced recession in the eurozone, we think it is unlikely that USDCHF will generate fresh year-to-date highs.
You can read our USDCHF Update in full here:
Author:
Simon Harvey, Head of FX Analysis
Disclaimer
This information has been prepared by Monex Canada Inc., an execution-only service provider. The material is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is, or should be considered to be, financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by Monex Canada Inc., or the author that any particular transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
Login
