News & Analysis

The past week saw FX markets drop down a few gears as the lighter data calendar allowed traders to take stock. That said, the week wasn’t entirely without action. An emphasis on the right tail of inflation and rates forecasts meant the dollar spent the week firming, although the DXY struggled to return to pre-payroll levels primarily because of developments in USDJPY. Next week however, this is all set to change. In the G10, no fewer than six central banks are set to update policy, and even though only two are expected to actually change rates, all will be in focus in terms of their updated forward guidance. The three main central bank decisions in our view are the BoJ, SNB, and Fed. On the former, expectations tilt in favour of a hike, although we think the BoJ will stick to its playbook and hold out one final time until April. The SNB on the other hand should cut rates as the recent trend in inflation data proves worrisome, even as February saw an improvement. Meanwhile for the Fed, it is all about forward guidance, with most of the focus on its updated dot plot and whether Powell can sustain his confident tone from earlier in the month. Throw in BoE, Norges Bank, and RBA meetings, and dust it with March’s flash PMIs and Canadian inflation data, next week is set to be busy for markets. In emerging markets, central bank decisions from Turkey, Brazil, and Mexico are set to land too, with all meetings live. Given the abundance of central bank meetings, we have refrained from publishing all within our week ahead documents. Advanced coverage of the SNB, Norges Bank, and RBA will be released on Monday.

You can read the Week Ahead in full here:

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Authors: 

Simon Harvey, Head of FX Analysis

María Marcos, FX Market Analyst

Nick Rees, FX Market Analyst

 

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