Stress testing the disinflation trade

Following last week’s US CPI release that forced a sharp selloff in the greenbeck, this week has seen the broad dollar fight back. Whilst the retracement was helped by strong retail sales and decent initial jobless claims, it was events elsewhere in the world that really pushed the move along. Soft UK CPI, and dovish speakers from the BoJ and ECB saw the dollar rally against the pound, euro and yen respectively. Elsewhere, Chinese growth prospects disappointed markets once again, as did decisions from both the CBRT and SARB. Next week will see further stress tests of the disinflation trade as a mix of central bank decisions, growth, and inflation data are all set to be released. Flash PMIs will open the week, with signs of US outperformance likely to once again boost the dollar. But it is central banks that markets will be keeping the closest eye on. Policy decisions from the Fed, ECB and BoJ are all due to be delivered, but with relatively less room for the Fed to disappoint markets, this should ultimately be positive for the greenback once again and continue its comeback next week.

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Authors: 

Simon Harvey, Head of FX Analysis

Jay Zhao-Murray, FX Market Analyst

María Marcos, FX Market Analyst

Nick Rees, FX Market Analyst

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