Monex’s May 2025 FX Forecasts

Coinciding nicely with the end of last month, April 29th marked the end of President Trump’s first 100 days in office – a convent length of time over which to judge a new administration. If the market reaction is anything to go by, however, Trump’s second term has been anything but well-received. Traders have been disabused of any initial optimism since the President took office, faced with an erratic approach to policymaking, and a dimming outlook for US activity. At no point was this more acute than following Trump’s April 2nd “Liberation Day” tariff announcements, which triggered a notable bout of volatility across markets. All told, over the first 100 days, Trump has steered equities and Treasury yields lower, accompanied by an unprecedented slide in the dollar. Neither tariffs, nor haven demand, appear to be supporting the greenback at present, in a break with historic relationships. As we see it though, the buck is battered, but not broken, at least not yet. We are, however, adjusting our forecasts to account for this new dollar reality.

Read our May 2025 FX Forecasts here:

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Author: 

Nick Rees, Head of Macro Research

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared by Monex Europe Holdings Limited, part of Monex S.A.P.I. de C.V. (“Monex”). The material is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is, or should be considered to be, financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All entities in the “Monex” group of companies are regulated for different products and services within the jurisdictions in which they operate. Details of the different entities can be found here. Details of the respective entities’ regulated status and available products and services can then be found on the relevant links to the individual jurisdictions’ website.