Press Room

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Rising rates pressuring USD aids Monex’s Reuters FX rankings

Rising rates pressuring USD aids Monex’s Reuters FX rankings

Money markets continued to push back strongly against G10 central bank communications throughout October and priced in aggressive tightening cycles across the space, resulting in bear flattening in most sovereign yield curves. This led to broader USD weakness in most major pairs, with the exception of EURUSD and USDJPY, both of which bucked the broad G10 trend due to their positions within the G10 monetary space.

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Risk-off tone sends the dollar higher in September, Monex retain strong G10 and EM Reuters rankings

Risk-off tone sends the dollar higher in September, Monex retain strong G10 and EM Reuters rankings

The sharp rise in the broad dollar, especially against major G10 currencies, in the last few days of September meant that Monex’s 1-month GBPUSD and EURUSD forecasts didn’t return a high ranking. However, our more neutral stance on euro-crosses and on AUD and NZD resulted in solid near-term rankings. In the EM space, it was business as usual, with notable rankings in MXN, RUB and TRY.

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Risk-off tone sends the dollar higher in September, Monex retain strong G10 and EM Reuters rankings

Dovish Powell at Jackson Hole leads to strong EM forecast performance for Monex in Reuters results

The decline in the broad dollar towards the end of the month meant that Monex retained strong rankings over the 1-month horizon for select currencies, especially within the EM space where the dollar’s decline was relatively larger following Powell’s speech. Over the medium-to-long run, Monex’s longstanding view of dollar weakness didn’t filter through to all forecasted currencies.

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Risk-off tone sends the dollar higher in September, Monex retain strong G10 and EM Reuters rankings

Monex retrains strong Reuters rankings despite a volatile July

Volatility wasn’t absent in July with the re-emergence of Covid concerns, dovish tone from Chair Powell, moderation in growth expectations, and turmoil in Chinese markets. Despite this volatility, Monex’s near-term forecasts weathered the storm, albeit better in the EM space than G10.

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Monex ranked top forecaster for 1-month MXN and BRL forecasts

Monex ranked top forecaster for 1-month MXN and BRL forecasts

The Federal Reserve’s hawkish shift in June caught markets off-guard and resulted in broad US dollar strength throughout the remainder of the month. Despite calling for further USD depreciation, Monex’s conservative stance on further USD downside meant shorter-term forecasts weathered the storm of a stronger dollar.

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Jamil Qureshi talks “Turning Ambition into Achievement” with Monex

Jamil Qureshi talks “Turning Ambition into Achievement” with Monex

Jamil’s session “Turning Ambition into Achievement” took Monex employees through a practical understanding of how to cultivate mindsets for optimising talent in a disrupted world. He believes that “for people to act differently, they need to think differently,” which was the pinnacle point of the entire talk.

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Monex Canada ranks 2nd in Bloomberg’s G10 and 13 Majors rankings

Monex Canada ranks 2nd in Bloomberg’s G10 and 13 Majors rankings

Monex’s improved forecast accuracy came at a time when the broad US dollar defied expectations of a substantial structural decline as reflationary dynamics remained prominent. Our more conservative view on the dollar’s decline paid dividends in this environment and resulted in a top 10 ranking for both USDJPY and GBPUSD.

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Media Contacts

To speak to one of our market analysts or for general media enquiries about Monex, please contact one of our press teams.

MONEX CANADA PRESS TEAM

monex@apexpr.com
+1 416-934-2127

MONEX EUROPE PRESS TEAM

teammonex@manbitesdog.com
+44 (0)1273 716820